All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 286 league matches of Montpellier since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 47 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 26, happened 28 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches286each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened47 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws28 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.74Vesta expected 2.68
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 77 | 16.2 | 14.3 | −1.9 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 360 | 26.1 | 27.8 | +1.6 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 194 | 34.4 | 33.5 | −0.9 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 110 | 45.0 | 40.0 | −5.0 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 63 | 54.6 | 60.3 | +5.7 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 22 | 64.1 | 54.5 | −9.6 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Montpellier 1-3 Metz
Sat 16 Dec 2017 · Ligue 112 in 100
Lyon 1-2 MontpellierSat 13 Feb 2021 · Ligue 112 in 100- Montpellier 2-1 Monaco
Fri 17 Jan 2025 · Ligue 116 in 100 
Toulouse 1-2 MontpellierSun 26 Jan 2025 · Ligue 116 in 100- Monaco 0-4 MontpellierSun 30 Apr 2023 · Ligue 116 in 100
- Monaco 1-1 MontpellierFri 29 Sep 2017 · Ligue 117 in 100
- Lyon 1-4 MontpellierSat 19 Aug 2023 · Ligue 117 in 100
- Montpellier 0-0 Paris Saint Germain
Sat 23 Sep 2017 · Ligue 117 in 100 
Nice 1-2 MontpellierFri 8 Mar 2024 · Ligue 118 in 100- Montpellier 1-2 Dijon
Sat 11 Aug 2018 · Ligue 119 in 100 - Montpellier 3-2 Paris Saint GermainTue 30 Apr 2019 · Ligue 120 in 100
Marseille 1-1 MontpellierFri 31 Mar 2023 · Ligue 120 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Monaco 1-1 MontpellierFri 29 Sep 2017 · home win said75 in 100
- Montpellier 0-0 Paris Saint GermainSat 23 Sep 2017 · away win said74 in 100
- Lyon 1-2 MontpellierSat 13 Feb 2021 · home win said70 in 100
- Marseille 0-0 MontpellierSun 8 Apr 2018 · home win said68 in 100
- Lyon 0-0 MontpellierSun 19 Nov 2017 · home win said68 in 100
- Marseille 1-1 MontpellierFri 31 Mar 2023 · home win said66 in 100
- Montpellier 1-3 MetzSat 16 Dec 2017 · home win said64 in 100
- Monaco 0-4 MontpellierSun 30 Apr 2023 · home win said63 in 100
- Montpellier 2-1 MonacoFri 17 Jan 2025 · away win said63 in 100
- Montpellier 2-2 Le Havre
Sun 13 Aug 2023 · home win said62 in 100 - Lyon 1-4 MontpellierSat 19 Aug 2023 · home win said61 in 100
Lens 2-2 MontpellierSun 19 May 2024 · home win said60 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Nantes | 15 | 27 | 20.2 | +6.8 |
  Rennes | 16 | 34 | 27.6 | +6.4 |
  Lille | 15 | 32 | 25.6 | +6.4 |
  Paris Saint Germain | 16 | 43 | 37.1 | +5.9 |
  Montpellier | 286 | 355 | 350.8 | +4.2 |
  Angers | 14 | 22 | 18.2 | +3.8 |
  Marseille | 15 | 30 | 27.3 | +2.7 |
  Dijon | 8 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 |
  Le Havre | 4 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 |
  Reims | 13 | 20 | 18.4 | +1.6 |
  Saint-Etienne | 12 | 17 | 15.9 | +1.1 |
  Auxerre | 4 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Montpellier's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 55 | 68 | 24 | 12 | 3.02 | 3.00 | 0.174 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 50 | 41 | 25 | 35 | 2.93 | 2.68 | 0.208 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 50 | 50 | 25 | 13 | 2.94 | 3.34 | 0.222 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 48 | 61 | 26 | 18 | 2.78 | 2.89 | 0.204 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 47 | 34 | 27 | 32 | 2.71 | 3.21 | 0.229 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | 28 | 48 | 68 | 28 | 25 | 2.39 | 2.46 | 0.169 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 45 | 32 | 29 | 37 | 2.32 | 2.50 | 0.214 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 48 | 29 | 28 | 47 | 2.33 | 1.82 | 0.219 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.