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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 210 league matches of Metz since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 53 times in 100; it said 52. Draws: said 26, happened 26 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
0–10 in 100	26	6.9	3.8	−3.1
10–20 in 100	85	15.8	11.8	−4.0
20–30 in 100	240	26.0	27.1	+1.1
30–40 in 100	112	34.2	36.6	+2.4
40–50 in 100	59	44.7	39.0	−5.7
50–60 in 100	51	54.4	58.8	+4.4
60–70 in 100	32	64.0	56.2	−7.8

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Monaco	11	30	22.7	+7.3
Brest	9	21	14.5	+6.5
Paris Saint Germain	11	33	27.7	+5.3
Rennes	11	26	21.6	+4.4
Bordeaux	8	17	12.9	+4.1
Troyes	4	10	6.0	+4.0
Strasbourg	12	24	20.1	+3.9
Amiens	4	9	5.9	+3.1
Lille	11	25	21.9	+3.1
Toulouse	7	15	12.0	+3.0
Auxerre	2	6	3.2	+2.8
Paris FC	2	6	3.2	+2.8

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Metz	210	184	202.9	−18.9
Nantes	12	11	19.1	−8.1
Lens	8	8	15.7	−7.7
Reims	8	7	12.4	−5.4
Clermont Foot	4	2	6.3	−4.3
Le Havre	4	3	6.2	−3.2
Nice	11	17	20.0	−3.0
Saint-Etienne	8	10	12.3	−2.3
Marseille	11	21	22.5	−1.5
Nimes	4	4	5.3	−1.3
Montpellier	10	16	16.7	−0.7
Dijon	5	6	6.4	−0.4

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Metz's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2025-26	Ligue 1	34	57	65	23	24	2.96	3.18	0.158
2023-24	Ligue 1	34	55	59	25	15	2.75	2.74	0.203
2021-22	Ligue 1	38	52	50	26	34	2.61	2.74	0.192
2020-21	Ligue 1	38	45	47	28	29	2.39	2.42	0.209
2019-20	Ligue 1	28	46	36	28	36	2.40	2.21	0.210
2017-18	Ligue 1	38	57	58	23	21	2.82	2.89	0.184

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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