All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 180 league matches of Bordeaux since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 49 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 27, happened 26 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches180each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened49 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws26 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.73Vesta expected 2.56
Likeliest score happened10 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 53 | 15.7 | 13.2 | −2.5 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 214 | 26.3 | 26.6 | +0.4 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 128 | 33.7 | 35.9 | +2.2 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 73 | 44.2 | 38.4 | −5.8 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 34 | 54.1 | 61.8 | +7.7 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 22 | 64.6 | 59.1 | −5.5 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Bordeaux 0-2 Strasbourg
Sun 12 Aug 2018 · Ligue 113 in 100
Paris Saint Germain 2-2 BordeauxSat 28 Nov 2020 · Ligue 114 in 100- Bordeaux 0-3 StrasbourgFri 8 Dec 2017 · Ligue 115 in 100
Rennes 0-1 BordeauxFri 20 Nov 2020 · Ligue 118 in 100- Bordeaux 0-2 Caen
Tue 16 Jan 2018 · Ligue 119 in 100 - Bordeaux 1-0 RennesSun 2 May 2021 · Ligue 119 in 100
- Bordeaux 4-3 StrasbourgSun 23 Jan 2022 · Ligue 120 in 100
Lyon 1-1 BordeauxSat 31 Aug 2019 · Ligue 120 in 100- Bordeaux 1-1 Monaco
Sun 20 Feb 2022 · Ligue 120 in 100 - Bordeaux 2-2 Paris Saint GermainSun 2 Dec 2018 · Ligue 121 in 100
- Bordeaux 0-2 Clermont Foot
Sun 8 Aug 2021 · Ligue 121 in 100 - Lyon 1-1 BordeauxSat 3 Nov 2018 · Ligue 122 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Paris Saint Germain 2-2 BordeauxSat 28 Nov 2020 · home win said79 in 100
- Lyon 1-1 BordeauxSat 31 Aug 2019 · home win said68 in 100
- Bordeaux 1-1 MonacoSun 20 Feb 2022 · away win said66 in 100
- Bordeaux 2-2 Paris Saint GermainSun 2 Dec 2018 · away win said65 in 100
- Bordeaux 0-2 StrasbourgSun 12 Aug 2018 · home win said65 in 100
Lille 0-0 BordeauxSat 2 Apr 2022 · home win said63 in 100- Lyon 1-1 BordeauxSat 3 Nov 2018 · home win said63 in 100
- Bordeaux 0-3 StrasbourgFri 8 Dec 2017 · home win said62 in 100
- Bordeaux 1-1 Amiens
Sun 23 Dec 2018 · home win said61 in 100 - Bordeaux 0-0 CaenSun 11 Nov 2018 · home win said61 in 100
- Bordeaux 1-1 Nantes
Sun 15 Oct 2017 · home win said58 in 100 - Bordeaux 4-3 StrasbourgSun 23 Jan 2022 · away win said58 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Montpellier | 9 | 20 | 12.4 | +7.6 |
  Strasbourg | 9 | 18 | 12.2 | +5.8 |
  Nice | 10 | 19 | 13.8 | +5.2 |
  Caen | 4 | 7 | 3.9 | +3.1 |
  Lille | 9 | 17 | 14.7 | +2.3 |
  Rennes | 9 | 17 | 14.7 | +2.3 |
  Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 26 | 23.7 | +2.3 |
  Marseille | 10 | 19 | 16.8 | +2.2 |
  Reims | 7 | 11 | 9.4 | +1.6 |
  Lens | 4 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 |
 Clermont Foot | 2 | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 |
  Nimes | 5 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 51 | 47 | 25 | 34 | 2.86 | 3.76 | 0.185 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 46 | 55 | 28 | 16 | 2.41 | 2.58 | 0.229 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | 28 | 46 | 50 | 28 | 36 | 2.38 | 2.64 | 0.187 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 48 | 45 | 27 | 29 | 2.54 | 2.00 | 0.212 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 51 | 47 | 26 | 18 | 2.57 | 2.66 | 0.213 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.