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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 248 league matches of Reims since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 33 times in 100; it said 47. Draws: said 28, happened 35 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
10–20 in 100	55	16.1	25.5	+9.3
20–30 in 100	291	26.3	35.1	+8.7
30–40 in 100	221	33.9	33.0	−0.9
40–50 in 100	91	44.6	30.8	−13.8
50–60 in 100	48	53.7	33.3	−20.3
60–70 in 100	22	63.2	40.9	−22.2

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Nimes	6	12	7.0	+5.0
Metz	8	13	9.2	+3.8
Reims	248	315	311.8	+3.2
Clermont Foot	6	10	7.4	+2.6
Auxerre	4	7	4.4	+2.6
Toulouse	9	14	11.5	+2.5
Brest	12	18	15.8	+2.2
Lens	10	19	16.9	+2.1
Caen	2	4	2.0	+2.0
Troyes	4	7	5.1	+1.9
Nice	14	23	21.3	+1.7
Amiens	3	5	3.3	+1.7

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Rennes	14	14	23.7	−9.7
Lyon	13	16	22.9	−6.9
Paris Saint Germain	13	23	29.7	−6.7
Monaco	14	18	24.0	−6.0
Nantes	13	11	16.7	−5.7
Marseille	13	19	23.3	−4.3
Le Havre	4	1	4.4	−3.4
Montpellier	13	14	16.9	−2.9
Guingamp	2	0	2.3	−2.3
Ajaccio	2	0	2.0	−2.0
Angers	12	14	15.9	−1.9
Bordeaux	7	8	9.4	−1.4

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Reims's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2024-25	Ligue 1	34	49	29	26	26	2.84	2.35	0.248
2023-24	Ligue 1	34	48	41	26	24	2.78	2.62	0.233
2022-23	Ligue 1	38	49	37	26	39	2.72	2.37	0.216
2021-22	Ligue 1	38	46	39	29	34	2.40	2.29	0.219
2020-21	Ligue 1	38	46	37	28	39	2.43	2.42	0.200
2019-20	Ligue 1	28	44	29	30	39	2.18	1.68	0.244
2018-19	Ligue 1	38	45	18	29	42	2.29	2.13	0.239

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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