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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 320 league matches of Nantes since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 48 times in 100; it said 48. Draws: said 27, happened 28 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
10–20 in 100	92	15.8	13.0	−2.8
20–30 in 100	405	26.5	29.1	+2.6
30–40 in 100	202	33.8	31.7	−2.2
40–50 in 100	141	44.3	41.1	−3.2
50–60 in 100	61	54.2	54.1	−0.1
60–70 in 100	37	64.9	67.6	+2.6

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Lille	18	43	31.4	+11.6
Reims	13	26	18.5	+7.5
Strasbourg	17	32	24.9	+7.1
Monaco	17	38	31.3	+6.7
Metz	12	20	13.5	+6.5
Rennes	18	37	31.1	+5.9
Lyon	17	35	32.9	+2.1
Nice	17	29	26.9	+2.1
Angers	16	23	21.0	+2.0
Bordeaux	10	15	13.5	+1.5
Nimes	5	7	6.3	+0.7
Saint-Etienne	12	16	15.4	+0.6

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Nantes	320	361	377.2	−16.2
Toulouse	13	12	18.6	−6.6
Lorient	10	8	13.6	−5.6
Montpellier	15	15	20.6	−5.6
Guingamp	4	1	5.3	−4.3
Auxerre	6	5	8.2	−3.2
Amiens	5	3	5.9	−2.9
Clermont Foot	6	5	7.6	−2.6
Marseille	18	31	33.5	−2.5
Troyes	6	5	6.6	−1.6
Paris Saint Germain	18	41	42.6	−1.6
Ajaccio	2	1	2.5	−1.5

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Nantes's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2025-26	Ligue 1	34	51	56	26	26	2.71	2.38	0.192
2024-25	Ligue 1	34	50	29	27	35	2.72	2.68	0.236
2023-24	Ligue 1	34	51	44	26	18	2.74	2.50	0.236
2022-23	Ligue 1	38	48	50	27	39	2.68	2.42	0.165
2021-22	Ligue 1	38	47	58	28	26	2.60	2.71	0.207
2020-21	Ligue 1	38	47	45	27	34	2.54	2.68	0.199
2019-20	Ligue 1	28	46	54	29	14	2.30	2.11	0.232
2018-19	Ligue 1	38	47	53	28	24	2.45	2.53	0.233
2017-18	Ligue 1	38	48	45	28	26	2.37	2.03	0.220

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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