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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 326 league matches of Rennes since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 50 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 26, happened 21 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
10–20 in 100	104	16.2	23.1	+6.9
20–30 in 100	438	26.1	23.3	−2.8
30–40 in 100	160	34.6	38.1	+3.5
40–50 in 100	130	45.0	42.3	−2.6
50–60 in 100	79	54.6	51.9	−2.7
60–70 in 100	40	64.6	72.5	+7.9

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Reims	14	26	14.3	+11.7
Lorient	10	19	7.9	+11.1
Nice	18	31	22.5	+8.5
Lens	12	24	15.8	+8.2
Monaco	17	33	25.0	+8.0
Lille	18	30	24.6	+5.4
Guingamp	4	10	4.6	+5.4
Dijon	7	11	6.4	+4.6
Toulouse	14	19	15.6	+3.4
Marseille	19	31	28.8	+2.2
Rennes	326	511	509.4	+1.6
Auxerre	7	8	6.6	+1.4

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Angers	16	8	15.6	−7.6
Paris Saint Germain	18	30	36.7	−6.7
Montpellier	16	10	16.2	−6.2
Saint-Etienne	11	6	11.3	−5.3
Nantes	18	13	18.1	−5.1
Metz	11	5	8.7	−3.7
Nimes	6	3	6.2	−3.2
Brest	14	11	13.4	−2.4
Le Havre	6	3	5.3	−2.3
Paris FC	2	0	2.3	−2.3
Amiens	5	3	5.2	−2.2
Lyon	18	25	27.2	−2.2

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Rennes's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	Ligue 1	6	50	83	26	17	2.99	3.00	0.189
2025-26	Ligue 1	34	47	44	26	24	2.87	3.21	0.227
2024-25	Ligue 1	34	49	65	26	6	2.82	2.97	0.202
2023-24	Ligue 1	34	51	44	25	29	2.82	2.91	0.230
2022-23	Ligue 1	38	54	61	24	13	2.89	2.84	0.211
2021-22	Ligue 1	38	52	53	26	16	2.70	3.21	0.209
2020-21	Ligue 1	38	49	55	28	26	2.45	2.42	0.215
2019-20	Ligue 1	28	47	54	27	18	2.53	2.21	0.234
2018-19	Ligue 1	38	49	34	26	34	2.65	2.82	0.221
2017-18	Ligue 1	38	49	39	27	26	2.54	2.47	0.251

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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