All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 326 league matches of Marseille since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 57 times in 100; it said 52. Draws: said 25, happened 23 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches326each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened57 in 100Vesta said 52
Draws23 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.94Vesta expected 2.78
Likeliest score happened11 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 20 | 8.2 | 10.0 | +1.8 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 146 | 16.2 | 13.0 | −3.2 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 400 | 25.8 | 21.5 | −4.3 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 142 | 34.8 | 41.5 | +6.7 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 104 | 44.7 | 54.8 | +10.1 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 89 | 54.9 | 56.2 | +1.3 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 47 | 64.7 | 66.0 | +1.3 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 26 | 73.0 | 73.1 | 0.0 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Marseille 0-2 Nantes
Sun 4 Jan 2026 · Ligue 16 in 100
Ajaccio 1-0 MarseilleSat 3 Jun 2023 · Ligue 110 in 100- Marseille 1-2 Nimes
Sat 16 Jan 2021 · Ligue 110 in 100 
Paris Saint Germain 0-1 MarseilleSun 13 Sep 2020 · Ligue 110 in 100- Marseille 1-2 Brest
Sat 27 May 2023 · Ligue 110 in 100 - Marseille 1-2 AjaccioSat 8 Oct 2022 · Ligue 114 in 100
Auxerre 3-0 MarseilleSat 22 Feb 2025 · Ligue 116 in 100- Marseille 0-2 Clermont Foot
Sun 20 Feb 2022 · Ligue 116 in 100 - Marseille 1-2 NantesSun 28 Apr 2019 · Ligue 116 in 100
- Marseille 2-2 Angers
Wed 29 Oct 2025 · Ligue 117 in 100 - Marseille 2-2 Rennes
Mon 27 Aug 2018 · Ligue 118 in 100 - Marseille 0-2 Reims
Sat 10 Aug 2019 · Ligue 118 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Marseille 0-2 NantesSun 4 Jan 2026 · home win said80 in 100
- Marseille 2-2 AngersWed 29 Oct 2025 · home win said76 in 100
- Paris Saint Germain 0-1 MarseilleSun 13 Sep 2020 · home win said73 in 100
- Marseille 1-1 Metz
Fri 9 Feb 2024 · home win said71 in 100 - Marseille 1-2 BrestSat 27 May 2023 · home win said71 in 100
- Ajaccio 1-0 MarseilleSat 3 Jun 2023 · away win said71 in 100
- Marseille 2-2 RennesMon 27 Aug 2018 · home win said70 in 100
- Marseille 1-2 NimesSat 16 Jan 2021 · home win said70 in 100
- Marseille 1-1 AngersFri 4 Oct 2024 · home win said70 in 100
- Marseille 1-1 NantesSun 4 Mar 2018 · home win said68 in 100
- Marseille 0-0 Montpellier
Sun 8 Apr 2018 · home win said68 in 100 - Marseille 1-1 Strasbourg
Sun 19 Jan 2025 · home win said67 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Marseille's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ligue 1 | 6 | 46 | 83 | 26 | 0 | 3.10 | 2.83 | 0.234 |
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 54 | 53 | 24 | 15 | 2.98 | 3.18 | 0.220 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 53 | 65 | 24 | 15 | 3.04 | 3.56 | 0.209 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 51 | 59 | 26 | 32 | 2.76 | 2.74 | 0.168 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 54 | 63 | 24 | 18 | 2.86 | 2.82 | 0.207 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 47 | 61 | 28 | 21 | 2.55 | 2.66 | 0.207 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 46 | 47 | 28 | 32 | 2.43 | 2.66 | 0.222 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | 28 | 49 | 43 | 27 | 29 | 2.56 | 2.50 | 0.209 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 54 | 55 | 24 | 18 | 2.88 | 2.95 | 0.196 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 59 | 61 | 22 | 29 | 2.94 | 3.34 | 0.145 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.