All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 250 league matches of Toulouse since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 51 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 26, happened 27 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches250each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened51 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws27 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.64Vesta expected 2.69
Likeliest score happened11 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 65 | 16.1 | 13.8 | −2.3 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 335 | 26.2 | 26.6 | +0.4 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 147 | 34.5 | 34.7 | +0.2 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 93 | 45.0 | 48.4 | +3.4 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 68 | 54.0 | 47.1 | −7.0 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Toulouse
Sun 12 May 2024 · Ligue 112 in 100- Toulouse 0-1 Angers
Sun 23 Nov 2025 · Ligue 113 in 100 - Toulouse 1-2 Montpellier
Sun 26 Jan 2025 · Ligue 116 in 100 - Toulouse 1-2 Strasbourg
Sun 12 Jan 2025 · Ligue 117 in 100 
Monaco 1-2 ToulouseSun 18 Feb 2024 · Ligue 118 in 100
Lille 1-2 ToulouseSat 22 Dec 2018 · Ligue 118 in 100- Toulouse 2-3 LilleSun 6 May 2018 · Ligue 119 in 100
Reims 2-3 ToulouseSun 4 Feb 2024 · Ligue 119 in 100
Rennes 1-2 ToulouseSat 13 Apr 2024 · Ligue 120 in 100- Reims 0-1 ToulouseWed 5 Dec 2018 · Ligue 121 in 100
- Angers 0-1 ToulouseSat 21 Oct 2017 · Ligue 121 in 100
Marseille 0-0 ToulouseSun 17 Sep 2023 · Ligue 121 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Paris Saint Germain 1-3 ToulouseSun 12 May 2024 · home win said70 in 100
- Marseille 0-0 ToulouseSun 17 Sep 2023 · home win said65 in 100
- Toulouse 0-1 AngersSun 23 Nov 2025 · home win said64 in 100
- Lille 1-1 ToulouseSun 12 Nov 2023 · home win said63 in 100
- Toulouse 1-1 Paris FC
Sat 21 Feb 2026 · home win said62 in 100 - Toulouse 0-0 Metz
Sat 18 Nov 2017 · home win said62 in 100 - Monaco 1-2 ToulouseSun 18 Feb 2024 · home win said60 in 100
- Marseille 2-2 ToulouseSat 29 Nov 2025 · home win said60 in 100
- Toulouse 1-2 MontpellierSun 26 Jan 2025 · home win said60 in 100
- Toulouse 0-0 Le Havre
Sun 2 Nov 2025 · home win said60 in 100 
Lyon 1-1 ToulouseFri 7 Oct 2022 · home win said59 in 100- Toulouse 1-2 StrasbourgSun 12 Jan 2025 · home win said59 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Marseille | 14 | 36 | 25.6 | +10.4 |
  Lille | 15 | 32 | 25.0 | +7.0 |
  Lyon | 15 | 33 | 26.5 | +6.5 |
  Lens | 8 | 19 | 13.3 | +5.7 |
  Montpellier | 11 | 21 | 15.3 | +5.7 |
  Strasbourg | 14 | 25 | 19.5 | +5.5 |
  Dijon | 6 | 13 | 7.6 | +5.4 |
  Brest | 11 | 19 | 13.9 | +5.1 |
  Nantes | 13 | 21 | 16.7 | +4.3 |
  Paris Saint Germain | 13 | 34 | 30.2 | +3.8 |
  Bordeaux | 5 | 12 | 8.2 | +3.8 |
  Le Havre | 7 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ligue 1 | 6 | 41 | 33 | 29 | 50 | 2.59 | 3.33 | 0.181 |
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 49 | 44 | 27 | 26 | 2.72 | 2.74 | 0.224 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 49 | 47 | 27 | 26 | 2.70 | 2.56 | 0.215 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 48 | 29 | 26 | 29 | 2.75 | 2.59 | 0.256 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 49 | 55 | 25 | 24 | 2.94 | 2.84 | 0.199 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | 28 | 52 | 79 | 25 | 14 | 2.68 | 2.86 | 0.160 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 49 | 47 | 26 | 37 | 2.58 | 2.42 | 0.194 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 49 | 61 | 27 | 26 | 2.50 | 2.42 | 0.191 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.