All questions

Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 120 league matches of Troyes since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 56 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 26, happened 25 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free

LeagueAll five leaguesPremier LeagueLa LigaSerie ABundesligaLigue 1 SeasonEvery season2026-272025-262024-252023-242022-232021-222020-212019-202018-192017-18 ClubEvery clubArsenalAston VillaBournemouthBrentfordBrightonChelseaCoventryCrystal PalaceEvertonFulhamHullIpswichLeedsLiverpoolManchester CityManchester UnitedNewcastle UnitedNottingham ForestSunderlandTottenhamAlavesAthletic ClubAtletico MadridBarcelonaCelta VigoDeportivo La CorunaElcheEspanyolGetafeLevanteMalagaOsasunaRacing SantanderRayo VallecanoReal BetisReal MadridReal SociedadSevillaValenciaVillarrealAC MilanAtalantaBolognaCagliariComoFiorentinaFrosinoneGenoaInterJuventusLazioLecceMonzaNapoliParmaRomaSassuoloTorinoUdineseVeneziaAugsburgBayer LeverkusenBayern MunichBorussia DortmundBorussia M.GladbachEintracht FrankfurtElversbergFC CologneFreiburgHamburger SVHoffenheimMainz 05PaderbornRasenBallsport LeipzigSchalke 04Union BerlinVfB StuttgartWerder BremenAngersAuxerreBrestLe HavreLe MansLensLilleLorientLyonMarseilleMonacoNiceParis FCParis Saint GermainRennesStrasbourgToulouseTroyes Show

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
10–20 in 100	42	16.2	9.5	−6.7
20–30 in 100	143	26.4	24.5	−1.9
30–40 in 100	72	34.6	33.3	−1.3
40–50 in 100	37	44.9	51.4	+6.5
50–60 in 100	29	54.5	72.4	+17.9

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

Share view

Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Lyon	6	18	12.3	+5.7
Marseille	7	19	14.2	+4.8
Toulouse	4	10	6.3	+3.7
Clermont Foot	4	9	5.5	+3.5
Guingamp	2	6	3.1	+2.9
Bordeaux	4	9	6.4	+2.6
Lens	4	10	7.6	+2.4
Angers	7	13	10.8	+2.2
Brest	4	8	5.8	+2.2
Montpellier	6	11	9.0	+2.0
Dijon	2	4	2.6	+1.4
Auxerre	2	4	2.7	+1.3

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Troyes	120	99	123.2	−24.2
Metz	4	1	4.9	−3.9
Strasbourg	7	9	11.3	−2.3
Lorient	5	5	7.3	−2.3
Lille	7	11	13.0	−2.0
Reims	4	4	5.8	−1.8
Amiens	2	1	2.7	−1.7
Paris FC	1	1	1.6	−0.6
Caen	2	3	3.2	−0.2
Rennes	6	12	11.8	+0.2
Monaco	6	13	12.6	+0.4
Paris Saint Germain	6	16	15.4	+0.6

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Troyes's matches; the current season so far

CSV Share view

Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	Ligue 1	6	46	50	27	17	2.79	2.83	0.235
2022-23	Ligue 1	38	53	55	24	32	2.93	3.32	0.176
2021-22	Ligue 1	38	48	47	27	29	2.54	2.37	0.196
2017-18	Ligue 1	38	51	66	26	16	2.55	2.39	0.173

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

Related questions

Who scores, starts and keeps a clean sheet next?Next round and fixturesWho wins the league, and how likely?Title, top four, relegationWho is over- or under-performing?Goals against expected goals