All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 325 league matches of Paris Saint Germain since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 71 times in 100; it said 68. Draws: said 18, happened 15 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches325each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened71 in 100Vesta said 68
Draws15 in 100Vesta said 18
Goals a match3.40Vesta expected 3.34
Likeliest score happened11 in 100Vesta said 11
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 156 | 6.2 | 5.8 | −0.4 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 298 | 15.0 | 16.1 | +1.1 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 180 | 23.7 | 18.3 | −5.4 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 24 | 35.0 | 29.2 | −5.8 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 30 | 45.9 | 53.3 | +7.4 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 47 | 55.4 | 57.4 | +2.0 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 84 | 66.0 | 69.0 | +3.0 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 91 | 75.2 | 73.6 | −1.6 |
| 80–90 in 100 | 51 | 84.0 | 90.2 | +6.2 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Paris Saint Germain 0-2 Rennes
Sat 12 May 2018 · Ligue 17 in 100- Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Lorient
Sun 30 Apr 2023 · Ligue 17 in 100 
Strasbourg 2-1 Paris Saint GermainSat 2 Dec 2017 · Ligue 17 in 100- Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Nantes
Sun 14 Mar 2021 · Ligue 18 in 100 
Dijon 2-1 Paris Saint GermainFri 1 Nov 2019 · Ligue 18 in 100- Paris Saint Germain 0-2 Reims
Wed 25 Sep 2019 · Ligue 18 in 100 - Lorient 3-2 Paris Saint GermainSun 31 Jan 2021 · Ligue 18 in 100
- Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Guingamp
Sun 29 Apr 2018 · Ligue 19 in 100 - Paris Saint Germain 2-2 StrasbourgSun 7 Apr 2019 · Ligue 19 in 100
- Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Clermont Foot
Sat 6 Apr 2024 · Ligue 110 in 100 - Nantes 3-2 Paris Saint GermainWed 17 Apr 2019 · Ligue 110 in 100
- Paris Saint Germain 0-1 Marseille
Sun 13 Sep 2020 · Ligue 110 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Paris Saint Germain 2-2 GuingampSun 29 Apr 2018 · home win said87 in 100
- Paris Saint Germain 2-2 StrasbourgSun 7 Apr 2019 · home win said87 in 100
- Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Clermont FootSat 6 Apr 2024 · home win said85 in 100
- Paris Saint Germain 3-3 Monaco
Sun 12 Jan 2020 · home win said82 in 100 - Paris Saint Germain 1-1 ReimsSat 25 Jan 2025 · home win said80 in 100
- Paris Saint Germain 1-1 NantesSat 30 Nov 2024 · home win said80 in 100
- Paris Saint Germain 0-2 RennesSat 12 May 2018 · home win said80 in 100
Amiens 4-4 Paris Saint GermainSat 15 Feb 2020 · away win said79 in 100- Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Bordeaux
Sat 28 Nov 2020 · home win said79 in 100 - Strasbourg 2-1 Paris Saint GermainSat 2 Dec 2017 · away win said79 in 100
- Paris Saint Germain 1-3 LorientSun 30 Apr 2023 · home win said79 in 100
- Amiens 2-2 Paris Saint GermainFri 4 May 2018 · away win said79 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Paris Saint Germain | 325 | 752 | 726.5 | +25.5 |
  Monaco | 19 | 24 | 15.1 | +8.9 |
  Rennes | 18 | 21 | 13.4 | +7.6 |
  Lorient | 10 | 10 | 4.7 | +5.3 |
  Reims | 13 | 11 | 6.9 | +4.1 |
  Nantes | 18 | 11 | 8.4 | +2.6 |
  Paris FC | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
 Clermont Foot | 6 | 5 | 3.1 | +1.9 |
  Strasbourg | 17 | 11 | 9.7 | +1.3 |
  Dijon | 8 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3 |
  Lyon | 18 | 16 | 15.2 | +0.8 |
 Amiens | 6 | 2 | 1.3 | +0.7 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Paris Saint Germain's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ligue 1 | 6 | 57 | 50 | 23 | 33 | 3.08 | 2.50 | 0.199 |
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 66 | 71 | 20 | 12 | 3.22 | 3.03 | 0.164 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 65 | 76 | 19 | 18 | 3.51 | 3.74 | 0.142 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 58 | 56 | 22 | 29 | 3.29 | 3.35 | 0.184 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 66 | 71 | 19 | 11 | 3.37 | 3.39 | 0.164 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 66 | 68 | 20 | 21 | 3.10 | 3.32 | 0.136 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 69 | 68 | 18 | 11 | 3.26 | 3.00 | 0.173 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | 27 | 73 | 81 | 16 | 7 | 3.38 | 3.67 | 0.141 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 76 | 76 | 15 | 11 | 3.47 | 3.68 | 0.130 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 78 | 76 | 14 | 16 | 3.53 | 3.61 | 0.120 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.