All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 142 league matches of Dijon since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 58 times in 100; it said 53. Draws: said 25, happened 24 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches142each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened58 in 100Vesta said 53
Draws24 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.68Vesta expected 2.66
Likeliest score happened11 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 56 | 15.7 | 10.7 | −5.0 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 173 | 25.9 | 22.0 | −3.9 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 62 | 34.7 | 41.9 | +7.3 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 40 | 45.0 | 47.5 | +2.5 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 45 | 54.7 | 55.6 | +0.8 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Lyon 1-3 Dijon
Sat 6 Apr 2019 · Ligue 15 in 100- Dijon 2-1 Paris Saint Germain
Fri 1 Nov 2019 · Ligue 18 in 100 
Saint-Etienne 0-1 DijonSun 23 May 2021 · Ligue 113 in 100
Nice 1-3 DijonSun 29 Nov 2020 · Ligue 116 in 100
Reims 1-2 DijonSat 28 Sep 2019 · Ligue 117 in 100- Lyon 3-3 DijonSat 23 Sep 2017 · Ligue 118 in 100
- Dijon 2-0 NiceSun 18 Apr 2021 · Ligue 118 in 100
Montpellier 1-2 DijonSat 11 Aug 2018 · Ligue 119 in 100- Dijon 0-2 Caen
Sat 1 Sep 2018 · Ligue 120 in 100 - Lyon 0-0 DijonSat 19 Oct 2019 · Ligue 121 in 100
Toulouse 0-1 DijonSat 7 Apr 2018 · Ligue 122 in 100
Monaco 2-2 DijonSat 27 Oct 2018 · Ligue 122 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Lyon 1-3 DijonSat 6 Apr 2019 · home win said82 in 100
- Dijon 2-1 Paris Saint GermainFri 1 Nov 2019 · away win said77 in 100
- Lyon 3-3 DijonSat 23 Sep 2017 · home win said73 in 100
- Lyon 0-0 DijonSat 19 Oct 2019 · home win said68 in 100
- Saint-Etienne 0-1 DijonSun 23 May 2021 · home win said65 in 100
- Monaco 2-2 DijonSat 27 Oct 2018 · home win said61 in 100
- Nice 1-3 DijonSun 29 Nov 2020 · home win said60 in 100
- Dijon 1-1 Rennes
Fri 16 Oct 2020 · away win said60 in 100 - Saint-Etienne 2-2 DijonSat 3 Mar 2018 · home win said57 in 100
Nantes 1-1 DijonSat 14 Apr 2018 · home win said57 in 100- Dijon 0-0 Marseille
Sat 9 Jan 2021 · away win said56 in 100 - Dijon 2-0 NiceSun 18 Apr 2021 · away win said56 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Rennes | 7 | 8 | 12.8 | −4.8 |
  Toulouse | 6 | 4 | 8.7 | −4.7 |
  Montpellier | 8 | 10 | 13.9 | −3.9 |
  Nice | 7 | 9 | 12.7 | −3.7 |
  Dijon | 142 | 133 | 136.6 | −3.6 |
  Reims | 5 | 6 | 8.6 | −2.6 |
  Troyes | 2 | 1 | 2.8 | −1.8 |
  Lyon | 7 | 14 | 15.8 | −1.8 |
  Nantes | 8 | 12 | 13.4 | −1.4 |
  Metz | 5 | 6 | 7.2 | −1.2 |
  Paris Saint Germain | 8 | 21 | 21.5 | −0.5 |
  Strasbourg | 7 | 11 | 11.1 | −0.1 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 57 | 63 | 24 | 24 | 2.62 | 2.58 | 0.162 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | 28 | 51 | 54 | 26 | 32 | 2.55 | 2.29 | 0.194 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 51 | 58 | 25 | 18 | 2.70 | 2.39 | 0.210 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 52 | 55 | 25 | 24 | 2.75 | 3.37 | 0.181 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.