All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 326 league matches of Lille since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 51 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 26, happened 25 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches326each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened51 in 100Vesta said 50
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.57Vesta expected 2.62
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 116 | 16.1 | 12.9 | −3.2 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 413 | 26.1 | 27.4 | +1.3 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 167 | 34.1 | 34.1 | 0.0 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 114 | 44.8 | 41.2 | −3.6 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 97 | 54.4 | 54.6 | +0.3 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 38 | 64.7 | 65.8 | +1.1 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Lyon 1-2 Lille
Wed 29 Nov 2017 · Ligue 17 in 100- Lille 1-2 Nimes
Sun 21 Mar 2021 · Ligue 111 in 100 - Lille 1-2 Le Havre
Sat 8 Feb 2025 · Ligue 112 in 100 
Angers 1-0 LilleSat 8 Apr 2023 · Ligue 113 in 100- Lille 0-2 Auxerre
Sun 17 May 2026 · Ligue 113 in 100 - Lille 0-1 Monaco
Fri 15 Mar 2019 · Ligue 118 in 100 - Lille 1-2 AngersWed 6 Jan 2021 · Ligue 118 in 100
- Lille 1-2 Toulouse
Sat 22 Dec 2018 · Ligue 118 in 100 
Lorient 4-1 LilleSun 27 Aug 2023 · Ligue 118 in 100
Troyes 1-1 LilleSat 3 Jun 2023 · Ligue 118 in 100- Lille 0-2 Caen
Sun 20 Aug 2017 · Ligue 119 in 100 - Lille 1-2 Reims
Tue 26 Sep 2023 · Ligue 119 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Lyon 1-2 LilleWed 29 Nov 2017 · home win said77 in 100
- Troyes 1-1 LilleSat 3 Jun 2023 · away win said72 in 100
- Lille 1-2 Le HavreSat 8 Feb 2025 · home win said68 in 100
- Lille 1-2 NimesSun 21 Mar 2021 · home win said68 in 100
- Lille 0-0 Nice
Sat 18 Apr 2026 · home win said67 in 100 - Monaco 0-0 LilleSat 18 Aug 2018 · home win said67 in 100
- Lille 1-1 Le HavreSun 3 May 2026 · home win said67 in 100
- Angers 1-0 LilleSat 8 Apr 2023 · away win said65 in 100
- Lille 0-0 Metz
Fri 18 Feb 2022 · home win said65 in 100 - Lille 1-1 Nantes
Sat 4 Jan 2025 · home win said63 in 100 - Lille 0-0 Bordeaux
Sat 2 Apr 2022 · home win said63 in 100 - Lille 1-1 ToulouseSun 12 Nov 2023 · home win said63 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Lille | 326 | 560 | 513.4 | +46.6 |
  Nice | 18 | 28 | 21.6 | +6.4 |
  Paris Saint Germain | 19 | 43 | 36.7 | +6.3 |
  Brest | 13 | 15 | 11.4 | +3.6 |
 Amiens | 5 | 9 | 5.9 | +3.1 |
  Troyes | 7 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 |
  Lorient | 10 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 |
  Reims | 13 | 15 | 14.2 | +0.8 |
  Auxerre | 6 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 |
 Clermont Foot | 6 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 |
  Nimes | 5 | 4 | 4.4 | −0.4 |
  Strasbourg | 18 | 19 | 19.7 | −0.7 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ligue 1 | 6 | 48 | 67 | 28 | 17 | 2.57 | 2.17 | 0.186 |
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 50 | 44 | 26 | 21 | 2.83 | 2.62 | 0.228 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 51 | 50 | 26 | 26 | 2.77 | 2.59 | 0.207 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 51 | 50 | 26 | 32 | 2.70 | 2.53 | 0.182 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 52 | 55 | 25 | 26 | 2.82 | 2.87 | 0.186 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 48 | 39 | 28 | 34 | 2.41 | 2.53 | 0.223 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 50 | 53 | 28 | 29 | 2.37 | 2.29 | 0.194 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | 28 | 50 | 61 | 26 | 14 | 2.57 | 2.21 | 0.206 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 50 | 47 | 26 | 24 | 2.60 | 2.66 | 0.225 |
| 2017-18 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 51 | 61 | 26 | 21 | 2.54 | 2.84 | 0.199 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.