All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 104 league matches of Nimes since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 56 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 26, happened 21 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches104each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened56 in 100Vesta said 50
Draws21 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.88Vesta expected 2.68
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 29 | 15.5 | 10.3 | −5.2 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 147 | 26.2 | 24.5 | −1.7 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 40 | 34.1 | 35.0 | +0.9 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 46 | 44.5 | 45.7 | +1.1 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 29 | 54.1 | 65.5 | +11.4 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Marseille 1-2 Nimes
Sat 16 Jan 2021 · Ligue 110 in 100
Lille 1-2 NimesSun 21 Mar 2021 · Ligue 111 in 100
Angers 3-4 NimesSat 11 Aug 2018 · Ligue 112 in 100
Montpellier 0-1 NimesSun 4 Oct 2020 · Ligue 121 in 100
Lyon 0-0 NimesFri 18 Sep 2020 · Ligue 121 in 100
Reims 0-1 NimesSun 22 Nov 2020 · Ligue 122 in 100- Nimes 3-1 MarseilleMon 20 Aug 2018 · Ligue 122 in 100
Nice 1-3 NimesSat 8 Feb 2020 · Ligue 122 in 100
Monaco 1-1 NimesFri 21 Sep 2018 · Ligue 123 in 100- Nimes 0-1 Toulouse
Sat 19 Jan 2019 · Ligue 124 in 100 - Nimes 0-0 Guingamp
Wed 26 Sep 2018 · Ligue 124 in 100 - Lille 2-2 NimesSun 6 Oct 2019 · Ligue 125 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Marseille 1-2 NimesSat 16 Jan 2021 · home win said70 in 100
- Lille 1-2 NimesSun 21 Mar 2021 · home win said68 in 100
- Angers 3-4 NimesSat 11 Aug 2018 · home win said67 in 100
- Lyon 0-0 NimesFri 18 Sep 2020 · home win said65 in 100
- Lille 2-2 NimesSun 6 Oct 2019 · home win said58 in 100
- Monaco 1-1 NimesFri 21 Sep 2018 · home win said56 in 100
- Nimes 3-1 MarseilleMon 20 Aug 2018 · away win said55 in 100
- Montpellier 0-1 NimesSun 4 Oct 2020 · home win said54 in 100
- Nimes 0-0 GuingampWed 26 Sep 2018 · home win said54 in 100
Bordeaux 3-3 NimesSun 16 Sep 2018 · home win said53 in 100- Reims 0-1 NimesSun 22 Nov 2020 · home win said52 in 100
- Nice 1-3 NimesSat 8 Feb 2020 · home win said51 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Nice | 6 | 15 | 9.4 | +5.6 |
  Rennes | 6 | 15 | 10.2 | +4.8 |
  Saint-Etienne | 6 | 14 | 9.7 | +4.3 |
  Lyon | 5 | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 |
  Toulouse | 3 | 6 | 3.3 | +2.7 |
  Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 15 | 12.6 | +2.4 |
  Metz | 4 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 |
 Amiens | 3 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 |
  Lille | 5 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 |
  Lens | 2 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
  Marseille | 6 | 12 | 11.8 | +0.2 |
  Strasbourg | 5 | 8 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 52 | 55 | 25 | 21 | 2.73 | 2.92 | 0.208 |
| 2019-20 | Ligue 1 | 28 | 48 | 61 | 27 | 21 | 2.55 | 2.61 | 0.193 |
| 2018-19 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 50 | 53 | 26 | 21 | 2.71 | 3.03 | 0.214 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.