Lab
All questions

Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 325 league matches of Strasbourg since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 42 times in 100; it said 48. Draws: said 27, happened 29 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches325each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened42 in 100Vesta said 48
Draws29 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.82Vesta expected 2.70
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 13

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
10–20 in 1007516.318.7+2.4
20–30 in 10045626.528.3+1.8
30–40 in 10017934.735.2+0.5
40–50 in 10014644.741.1−3.6
50–60 in 1006754.147.8−6.4
60–70 in 1002864.257.1−7.1

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. Strasbourg 2-1 Paris Saint GermainSat 2 Dec 2017 · Ligue 17 in 100
  2. Paris Saint Germain 2-2 StrasbourgSun 7 Apr 2019 · Ligue 19 in 100
  3. Bordeaux 0-2 StrasbourgSun 12 Aug 2018 · Ligue 113 in 100
  4. Strasbourg 3-2 LyonSat 12 May 2018 · Ligue 113 in 100
  5. Strasbourg 2-1 Paris Saint GermainSat 3 May 2025 · Ligue 115 in 100
  6. Bordeaux 0-3 StrasbourgFri 8 Dec 2017 · Ligue 115 in 100
  7. Lens 0-2 StrasbourgSun 16 Feb 2025 · Ligue 117 in 100
  8. Toulouse 1-2 StrasbourgSun 12 Jan 2025 · Ligue 117 in 100
  9. Strasbourg 1-3 LorientSun 18 Feb 2024 · Ligue 117 in 100
  10. Nice 1-2 StrasbourgSun 22 Oct 2017 · Ligue 117 in 100
  11. Monaco 0-0 StrasbourgSat 19 Apr 2025 · Ligue 117 in 100
  12. Rennes 1-4 StrasbourgSun 2 Dec 2018 · Ligue 118 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. Paris Saint Germain 2-2 StrasbourgSun 7 Apr 2019 · home win said87 in 100
  2. Strasbourg 2-1 Paris Saint GermainSat 2 Dec 2017 · away win said79 in 100
  3. Monaco 0-0 StrasbourgSat 19 Apr 2025 · home win said72 in 100
  4. Strasbourg 1-1 Paris Saint GermainWed 5 Dec 2018 · away win said69 in 100
  5. Marseille 1-1 StrasbourgSun 19 Jan 2025 · home win said67 in 100
  6. Strasbourg 3-2 LyonSat 12 May 2018 · away win said67 in 100
  7. Marseille 2-2 StrasbourgSun 12 Mar 2023 · home win said67 in 100
  8. Bordeaux 0-2 StrasbourgSun 12 Aug 2018 · home win said65 in 100
  9. Paris Saint Germain 3-3 StrasbourgFri 17 Oct 2025 · home win said65 in 100
  10. Troyes 1-1 StrasbourgSun 21 May 2023 · away win said64 in 100
  11. Strasbourg 2-1 Paris Saint GermainSat 3 May 2025 · away win said64 in 100
  12. Rennes 1-1 StrasbourgSun 29 Oct 2023 · home win said62 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Rennes173227.6+4.4
Strasbourg325426421.7+4.3
Brest131916.2+2.8
Guingamp485.3+2.7
Le Havre696.7+2.3
Lorient101311.0+2.0
Lille183129.3+1.7
Marseille183331.8+1.2
Troyes797.8+1.2
Montpellier162220.8+1.2
Caen464.9+1.1
Saint-Etienne111514.0+1.0
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Toulouse141318.7−5.7
Nantes171721.3−4.3
Metz12912.7−3.7
Bordeaux9912.4−3.4
Paris Saint Germain173538.2−3.2
Lens131821.1−3.1
Auxerre646.8−2.8
Nice182325.7−2.7
Clermont Foot646.1−2.1
Monaco193132.7−1.7
Reims141718.5−1.5
Nimes555.7−0.7

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Strasbourg's matches; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2026-27Ligue 16453327173.023.830.262
2025-26Ligue 134474427242.763.090.211
2024-25Ligue 134503226262.922.940.251
2023-24Ligue 134474727262.652.590.208
2022-23Ligue 138493426342.782.890.216
2021-22Ligue 138475327322.692.710.188
2020-21Ligue 138474527242.632.820.224
2019-20Ligue 127465628192.472.370.215
2018-19Ligue 138482927422.562.790.230
2017-18Ligue 138524725292.752.920.217

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

Related questions

Who scores, starts and keeps a clean sheet next?Next round and fixturesWho wins the league, and how likely?Title, top four, relegationWho is over- or under-performing?Goals against expected goals