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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 326 league matches of Monaco since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 55 times in 100; it said 53. Draws: said 25, happened 22 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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League Season Club

Matches326each forecast before its season

Likeliest result happened55 in 100Vesta said 53

Draws22 in 100Vesta said 25

Goals a match3.09Vesta expected 2.90

Likeliest score happened7 in 100Vesta said 12

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
0–10 in 100	20	8.1	0.0	−8.1
10–20 in 100	139	15.8	16.5	+0.8
20–30 in 100	416	25.2	23.3	−1.9
30–40 in 100	123	34.9	41.5	+6.6
40–50 in 100	106	45.1	46.2	+1.1
50–60 in 100	83	54.5	51.8	−2.7
60–70 in 100	65	64.5	63.1	−1.5
70–80 in 100	23	74.3	87.0	+12.6

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

Underrated: more points than expected
Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Monaco	326	564	548.1	+15.9
Lyon	17	30	23.3	+6.7
Lorient	10	14	8.0	+6.0
Lens	13	21	15.7	+5.3
Paris FC	2	6	1.7	+4.3
Reims	14	18	14.3	+3.7
Guingamp	4	7	3.7	+3.3
Montpellier	16	19	15.8	+3.2
Nice	18	23	20.4	+2.6
Strasbourg	19	22	19.5	+2.5
Nimes	6	8	5.8	+2.2
Lille	17	23	21.0	+2.0

Overrated: fewer points than expected
Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Paris Saint Germain	19	30	37.8	−7.8
Nantes	17	8	15.4	−7.4
Rennes	17	15	21.7	−6.7
Metz	11	3	7.9	−4.9
Angers	16	9	13.8	−4.8
Clermont Foot	6	1	5.2	−4.2
Auxerre	6	1	4.3	−3.3
Toulouse	14	11	14.2	−3.2
Amiens	6	2	5.0	−3.0
Le Havre	7	4	5.7	−1.7
Ajaccio	2	0	1.6	−1.6
Dijon	8	5	5.8	−0.8

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Monaco's matches; the current season so far

CSV

Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	Ligue 1	6	45	50	27	33	2.95	2.50	0.247
2025-26	Ligue 1	34	52	38	24	18	3.06	3.35	0.247
2024-25	Ligue 1	34	55	62	23	21	3.15	3.06	0.189
2023-24	Ligue 1	34	50	50	25	21	3.01	3.24	0.229
2022-23	Ligue 1	38	54	55	24	21	3.01	3.37	0.210
2021-22	Ligue 1	38	53	55	26	24	2.69	2.76	0.214
2020-21	Ligue 1	38	53	66	25	16	2.79	3.11	0.182
2019-20	Ligue 1	28	47	61	26	25	2.74	3.14	0.204
2018-19	Ligue 1	38	48	39	26	32	2.67	2.50	0.234
2017-18	Ligue 1	38	62	68	21	21	3.01	3.42	0.140

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

The biggest surprises

The surest calls that missed

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

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