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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 38 league matches of Luton since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 61 times in 100; it said 59. Draws: said 21, happened 21 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
10–20 in 100	21	15.7	19.0	+3.3
20–30 in 100	36	24.6	25.0	+0.4

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Fulham	2	6	3.3	+2.7
West Ham	2	6	3.7	+2.3
Manchester United	2	6	3.7	+2.3
Brentford	2	6	3.9	+2.1
Chelsea	2	6	4.0	+2.0
Tottenham	2	6	4.1	+1.9
Aston Villa	2	6	4.4	+1.6
Burnley	2	4	2.6	+1.4
Wolverhampton Wanderers	2	4	2.9	+1.1
Sheffield United	2	3	2.0	+1.0
Arsenal	2	6	5.2	+0.8
Manchester City	2	6	5.3	+0.7

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Luton	38	26	34.0	−8.0
Newcastle United	2	1	4.6	−3.6
Crystal Palace	2	1	3.3	−2.3
Everton	2	1	3.3	−2.3
Brighton	2	3	4.4	−1.4
Liverpool	2	4	5.0	−1.0
Nottingham Forest	2	2	2.9	−0.9
Bournemouth	2	3	3.3	−0.3
Manchester City	2	6	5.3	+0.7
Arsenal	2	6	5.2	+0.8
Sheffield United	2	3	2.0	+1.0
Wolverhampton Wanderers	2	4	2.9	+1.1

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Luton's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2023-24	Premier League	38	59	61	21	21	3.42	3.61	0.176

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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