All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 114 league matches of Sheffield United since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 61 times in 100; it said 56. Draws: said 24, happened 18 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches114each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened61 in 100Vesta said 56
Draws18 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.63Vesta expected 2.84
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 58 | 15.3 | 15.5 | +0.2 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 124 | 25.7 | 21.8 | −3.9 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 45 | 34.6 | 33.3 | −1.2 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 30 | 44.9 | 40.0 | −4.9 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 24 | 54.5 | 70.8 | +16.3 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 22 | 64.1 | 72.7 | +8.6 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Aston Villa 1-1 Sheffield United
Fri 22 Dec 2023 · Premier League10 in 100
Brighton 1-1 Sheffield UnitedSun 12 Nov 2023 · Premier League11 in 100
Manchester United 1-2 Sheffield UnitedWed 27 Jan 2021 · Premier League12 in 100- Sheffield United 1-0 Brentford
Sat 9 Dec 2023 · Premier League14 in 100 
Everton 0-1 Sheffield UnitedSun 16 May 2021 · Premier League15 in 100
Luton 1-3 Sheffield UnitedSat 10 Feb 2024 · Premier League15 in 100- Sheffield United 1-0 BrightonSat 24 Apr 2021 · Premier League16 in 100
- Sheffield United 0-2 Newcastle United
Thu 5 Dec 2019 · Premier League17 in 100 
Bournemouth 2-2 Sheffield UnitedSat 9 Mar 2024 · Premier League18 in 100- Sheffield United 2-2 Chelsea
Sun 7 Apr 2024 · Premier League19 in 100 - Bournemouth 1-1 Sheffield UnitedSat 10 Aug 2019 · Premier League21 in 100
- Sheffield United 3-0 ChelseaSat 11 Jul 2020 · Premier League22 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Aston Villa 1-1 Sheffield UnitedFri 22 Dec 2023 · home win said87 in 100
- Brighton 1-1 Sheffield UnitedSun 12 Nov 2023 · home win said83 in 100
- Bournemouth 2-2 Sheffield UnitedSat 9 Mar 2024 · home win said71 in 100
- Manchester United 1-2 Sheffield UnitedWed 27 Jan 2021 · home win said67 in 100
- Sheffield United 1-0 BrentfordSat 9 Dec 2023 · away win said66 in 100
- Sheffield United 2-2 ChelseaSun 7 Apr 2024 · away win said66 in 100
- Luton 1-3 Sheffield UnitedSat 10 Feb 2024 · home win said65 in 100
- Bournemouth 1-1 Sheffield UnitedSat 10 Aug 2019 · home win said64 in 100
- Everton 0-1 Sheffield UnitedSun 16 May 2021 · home win said61 in 100
- Sheffield United 1-0 BrightonSat 24 Apr 2021 · away win said58 in 100
- Sheffield United 0-2 Newcastle UnitedThu 5 Dec 2019 · home win said57 in 100
- Chelsea 2-2 Sheffield UnitedSat 31 Aug 2019 · home win said56 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Southampton | 4 | 12 | 6.0 | +6.0 |
  Newcastle United | 6 | 15 | 9.6 | +5.4 |
  Leicester | 4 | 12 | 7.0 | +5.0 |
  Liverpool | 6 | 18 | 14.4 | +3.6 |
  Crystal Palace | 6 | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 |
  Manchester City | 6 | 18 | 15.0 | +3.0 |
  Leeds | 2 | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 |
  Nottingham Forest | 2 | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 |
  Tottenham | 6 | 13 | 11.4 | +1.6 |
  Fulham | 4 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 |
  Burnley | 6 | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 |
  West Ham | 6 | 11 | 9.8 | +1.2 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Sheffield United | 114 | 93 | 112.5 | −19.5 |
  Brighton | 6 | 6 | 10.6 | −4.6 |
  Chelsea | 6 | 11 | 12.8 | −1.8 |
  Aston Villa | 6 | 8 | 9.8 | −1.8 |
  Norwich | 2 | 0 | 1.8 | −1.8 |
  Bournemouth | 4 | 5 | 6.7 | −1.7 |
  Brentford | 2 | 3 | 4.5 | −1.5 |
  Luton | 2 | 3 | 3.5 | −0.5 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 6 | 10 | 10.3 | −0.3 |
  Everton | 6 | 10 | 10.3 | −0.3 |
  Watford | 2 | 2 | 2.1 | −0.1 |
  Manchester United | 6 | 13 | 12.2 | +0.8 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Sheffield United's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 65 | 66 | 19 | 18 | 3.42 | 3.66 | 0.152 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 74 | 26 | 5 | 2.54 | 2.18 | 0.199 |
| 2019-20 | Premier League | 38 | 50 | 45 | 27 | 32 | 2.55 | 2.05 | 0.198 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.