All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 196 league matches of Brentford since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 47 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 25, happened 27 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches196each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened47 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws27 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.94Vesta expected 2.93
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 54 | 16.0 | 18.5 | +2.5 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 257 | 25.7 | 27.2 | +1.5 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 109 | 34.5 | 32.1 | −2.4 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 78 | 44.4 | 44.9 | +0.5 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 49 | 54.0 | 46.9 | −7.1 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 21 | 64.6 | 57.1 | −7.5 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Manchester City 1-2 Brentford
Sat 12 Nov 2022 · Premier League5 in 100
Chelsea 1-4 BrentfordSat 2 Apr 2022 · Premier League11 in 100- Brentford 2-0 Arsenal
Fri 13 Aug 2021 · Premier League11 in 100 
Sheffield United 1-0 BrentfordSat 9 Dec 2023 · Premier League14 in 100- Brentford 1-2 Norwich
Sat 6 Nov 2021 · Premier League15 in 100 - Brentford 1-3 Everton
Sat 23 Sep 2023 · Premier League15 in 100 - Brentford 1-4 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wed 27 Dec 2023 · Premier League16 in 100 - Brentford 1-0 Manchester CitySun 28 May 2023 · Premier League18 in 100
- Brentford 1-2 Leeds
Sun 22 May 2022 · Premier League19 in 100 - Brentford 2-2 Bournemouth
Sat 2 Sep 2023 · Premier League19 in 100 - Brentford 3-2 Liverpool
Sat 25 Oct 2025 · Premier League20 in 100 - Brentford 0-2 Nottingham Forest
Sun 25 Jan 2026 · Premier League20 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Manchester City 1-2 BrentfordSat 12 Nov 2022 · home win said83 in 100
- Brentford 2-2 BournemouthSat 2 Sep 2023 · home win said69 in 100
- Brentford 2-0 ArsenalFri 13 Aug 2021 · away win said68 in 100
- Chelsea 1-4 BrentfordSat 2 Apr 2022 · home win said68 in 100
- Sheffield United 1-0 BrentfordSat 9 Dec 2023 · away win said66 in 100
- Arsenal 1-1 BrentfordSat 12 Apr 2025 · home win said64 in 100
- Brentford 1-3 EvertonSat 23 Sep 2023 · home win said63 in 100
- Arsenal 1-1 BrentfordSat 11 Feb 2023 · home win said62 in 100
- Brentford 1-4 Wolverhampton WanderersWed 27 Dec 2023 · home win said61 in 100
- Brentford 1-2 NorwichSat 6 Nov 2021 · home win said61 in 100
- Brentford 1-1 ArsenalThu 12 Feb 2026 · away win said59 in 100
- Brentford 2-2 Wolverhampton WanderersMon 16 Mar 2026 · home win said59 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Manchester United | 10 | 19 | 14.2 | +4.8 |
  Newcastle United | 10 | 19 | 14.4 | +4.6 |
  Fulham | 8 | 14 | 9.6 | +4.4 |
  Tottenham | 11 | 19 | 15.2 | +3.8 |
  Brighton | 10 | 18 | 14.5 | +3.5 |
  Nottingham Forest | 8 | 11 | 8.4 | +2.6 |
  Sheffield United | 2 | 3 | 1.1 | +1.9 |
  Everton | 10 | 13 | 11.3 | +1.7 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10 | 12 | 10.5 | +1.5 |
  Norwich | 2 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
  Leicester | 6 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 |
  Burnley | 6 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Brentford | 196 | 263 | 271.8 | −8.8 |
  West Ham | 10 | 4 | 11.9 | −7.9 |
  Bournemouth | 9 | 4 | 10.5 | −6.5 |
  Chelsea | 11 | 13 | 18.9 | −5.9 |
  Southampton | 6 | 3 | 6.1 | −3.1 |
  Watford | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | −2.0 |
  Luton | 2 | 0 | 1.6 | −1.6 |
  Ipswich | 2 | 0 | 1.3 | −1.3 |
  Crystal Palace | 10 | 12 | 12.6 | −0.6 |
  Liverpool | 10 | 20 | 20.4 | −0.4 |
  Manchester City | 10 | 22 | 22.2 | −0.2 |
  Leeds | 7 | 8 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Brentford's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 43 | 17 | 27 | 67 | 2.97 | 3.00 | 0.171 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 48 | 45 | 26 | 29 | 2.97 | 2.82 | 0.208 |
| 2024-25 | Premier League | 38 | 51 | 61 | 24 | 21 | 3.17 | 3.24 | 0.182 |
| 2023-24 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 53 | 24 | 24 | 3.04 | 3.18 | 0.212 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 49 | 37 | 26 | 37 | 2.83 | 2.74 | 0.228 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 48 | 47 | 27 | 18 | 2.64 | 2.74 | 0.238 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.