All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 40 league matches of Paris FC since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 42 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 26, happened 32 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches40each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened42 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws32 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.73Vesta expected 2.82
Likeliest score happened10 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30 in 100 | 54 | 25.9 | 25.9 | 0.0 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 24 | 34.6 | 33.3 | −1.2 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Paris FC 2-1 Paris Saint Germain
Sun 17 May 2026 · Ligue 113 in 100
Monaco 0-1 Paris FCSat 1 Nov 2025 · Ligue 119 in 100- Paris FC 1-2 Nantes
Fri 24 Oct 2025 · Ligue 119 in 100 
Nice 1-1 Paris FCSun 28 Sep 2025 · Ligue 123 in 100
Lyon 1-1 Paris FCSun 8 Mar 2026 · Ligue 123 in 100- Paris FC 4-1 MonacoFri 10 Apr 2026 · Ligue 123 in 100
Toulouse 1-1 Paris FCSat 21 Feb 2026 · Ligue 124 in 100
Marseille 2-3 Paris FCSun 6 Sep 2026 · Ligue 124 in 100
Strasbourg 0-0 Paris FCSun 15 Mar 2026 · Ligue 126 in 100- Paris FC 2-2 MarseilleSat 31 Jan 2026 · Ligue 126 in 100
Lorient 1-1 Paris FCSun 5 Apr 2026 · Ligue 127 in 100- Paris FC 3-3 LyonWed 29 Oct 2025 · Ligue 127 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Paris FC 2-1 Paris Saint GermainSun 17 May 2026 · away win said66 in 100
- Lyon 1-1 Paris FCSun 8 Mar 2026 · home win said63 in 100
- Toulouse 1-1 Paris FCSat 21 Feb 2026 · home win said62 in 100
- Monaco 0-1 Paris FCSat 1 Nov 2025 · home win said59 in 100
- Nice 1-1 Paris FCSun 28 Sep 2025 · home win said58 in 100
- Paris FC 1-2 NantesFri 24 Oct 2025 · home win said56 in 100
- Strasbourg 0-0 Paris FCSun 15 Mar 2026 · home win said56 in 100
- Paris FC 2-2 MarseilleSat 31 Jan 2026 · away win said53 in 100
- Lorient 1-1 Paris FCSun 5 Apr 2026 · home win said52 in 100
- Paris FC 0-0 Angers
Sun 25 Jan 2026 · home win said52 in 100 - Paris FC 4-1 MonacoFri 10 Apr 2026 · away win said51 in 100
- Marseille 2-3 Paris FCSun 6 Sep 2026 · home win said50 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ligue 1 | 6 | 43 | 50 | 28 | 33 | 2.76 | 2.00 | 0.219 |
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 50 | 41 | 26 | 32 | 2.83 | 2.85 | 0.222 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.