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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 250 league matches of Brest since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 49 times in 100; it said 48. Draws: said 26, happened 26 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
10–20 in 100	66	15.9	9.1	−6.8
20–30 in 100	336	26.2	26.2	0.0
30–40 in 100	153	34.7	35.9	+1.2
40–50 in 100	96	44.8	43.8	−1.1
50–60 in 100	58	54.1	55.2	+1.1
60–70 in 100	23	63.6	73.9	+10.3

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Brest	250	325	298.4	+26.6
Paris Saint Germain	14	40	32.0	+8.0
Paris FC	2	6	2.8	+3.2
Auxerre	7	11	8.1	+2.9
Monaco	13	27	24.2	+2.8
Nimes	3	7	4.3	+2.7
Montpellier	11	17	14.5	+2.5
Marseille	13	25	23.2	+1.8
Ajaccio	2	4	2.7	+1.3
Rennes	14	26	25.0	+1.0
Lorient	10	13	12.6	+0.4
Nice	14	23	22.6	+0.4

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Lille	13	18	24.3	−6.3
Toulouse	11	10	16.0	−6.0
Clermont Foot	6	2	7.9	−5.9
Saint-Etienne	8	5	10.1	−5.1
Reims	12	12	16.9	−4.9
Le Havre	7	3	7.9	−4.9
Metz	9	6	10.0	−4.0
Lyon	13	20	23.8	−3.8
Strasbourg	13	16	19.3	−3.3
Troyes	4	2	5.0	−3.0
Angers	13	15	17.2	−2.2
Dijon	4	3	5.0	−2.0

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Brest's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	Ligue 1	6	45	50	28	33	2.72	3.50	0.186
2025-26	Ligue 1	34	47	53	26	26	2.85	2.88	0.191
2024-25	Ligue 1	34	49	50	26	15	2.84	3.26	0.208
2023-24	Ligue 1	34	49	41	26	29	2.70	2.56	0.209
2022-23	Ligue 1	38	51	47	25	29	2.84	2.58	0.204
2021-22	Ligue 1	38	48	42	27	24	2.71	2.79	0.234
2020-21	Ligue 1	38	47	58	26	21	2.76	3.05	0.206
2019-20	Ligue 1	28	48	50	27	36	2.53	2.54	0.181

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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