All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 112 league matches of Auxerre since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 51 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 26, happened 27 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches112each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened51 in 100Vesta said 51
Draws27 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.67Vesta expected 2.78
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 40 | 16.7 | 17.5 | +0.8 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 141 | 26.1 | 24.1 | −1.9 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 52 | 34.0 | 42.3 | +8.4 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 42 | 44.5 | 42.9 | −1.7 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 30 | 54.5 | 46.7 | −7.8 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Lille 0-2 Auxerre
Sun 17 May 2026 · Ligue 113 in 100- Auxerre 3-0 Marseille
Sat 22 Feb 2025 · Ligue 116 in 100 
Lens 0-4 AuxerreSun 27 Apr 2025 · Ligue 118 in 100
Rennes 0-1 AuxerreSun 6 Apr 2025 · Ligue 119 in 100- Auxerre 0-0 Paris Saint Germain
Fri 6 Dec 2024 · Ligue 119 in 100 - Marseille 1-3 AuxerreFri 8 Nov 2024 · Ligue 120 in 100
Lyon 2-2 AuxerreSun 27 Oct 2024 · Ligue 120 in 100- Auxerre 2-1 LyonFri 17 Feb 2023 · Ligue 121 in 100
- Auxerre 1-2 Le Havre
Sun 4 May 2025 · Ligue 121 in 100 
Nice 1-1 AuxerreFri 14 Mar 2025 · Ligue 121 in 100- Auxerre 1-1 Saint-Etienne
Fri 24 Jan 2025 · Ligue 125 in 100 - Auxerre 1-3 Angers
Sat 29 Aug 2026 · Ligue 125 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Auxerre 0-0 Paris Saint GermainFri 6 Dec 2024 · away win said67 in 100
- Lyon 2-2 AuxerreSun 27 Oct 2024 · home win said65 in 100
- Nice 1-1 AuxerreFri 14 Mar 2025 · home win said65 in 100
- Lille 0-2 AuxerreSun 17 May 2026 · home win said63 in 100
- Auxerre 3-0 MarseilleSat 22 Feb 2025 · away win said62 in 100
Toulouse 0-0 AuxerreSun 1 Feb 2026 · home win said57 in 100- Nice 1-1 AuxerreFri 3 Mar 2023 · home win said57 in 100
- Marseille 1-3 AuxerreFri 8 Nov 2024 · home win said57 in 100
Monaco 2-2 AuxerreSun 19 Apr 2026 · home win said57 in 100- Lens 0-4 AuxerreSun 27 Apr 2025 · home win said57 in 100
- Auxerre 1-1 LilleSat 22 Apr 2023 · away win said56 in 100
- Rennes 0-1 AuxerreSun 6 Apr 2025 · home win said55 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Le Havre | 4 | 10 | 4.9 | +5.1 |
  Monaco | 6 | 16 | 12.3 | +3.7 |
  Strasbourg | 6 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4 |
  Nantes | 6 | 11 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
  Angers | 7 | 11 | 8.8 | +2.2 |
  Lens | 7 | 16 | 13.8 | +2.2 |
  Saint-Etienne | 2 | 4 | 2.1 | +1.9 |
  Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 16 | 14.3 | +1.7 |
 Clermont Foot | 2 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 |
  Montpellier | 4 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
  Lyon | 7 | 14 | 13.4 | +0.6 |
  Marseille | 6 | 12 | 12.3 | −0.3 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ligue 1 | 6 | 50 | 67 | 27 | 0 | 2.77 | 4.00 | 0.213 |
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 49 | 59 | 27 | 29 | 2.61 | 2.29 | 0.182 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 51 | 38 | 25 | 26 | 2.94 | 2.91 | 0.240 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 52 | 53 | 25 | 29 | 2.79 | 2.58 | 0.168 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.