All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 188 league matches of Lorient since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 44 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 26, happened 28 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches188each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened44 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws28 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.88Vesta expected 2.74
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 56 | 16.3 | 19.6 | +3.4 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 246 | 26.2 | 28.5 | +2.2 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 112 | 34.9 | 36.6 | +1.7 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 69 | 45.0 | 43.5 | −1.5 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 39 | 54.1 | 38.5 | −15.6 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 23 | 64.8 | 60.9 | −3.9 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Lorient
Sun 30 Apr 2023 · Ligue 17 in 100- Lorient 3-2 Paris Saint GermainSun 31 Jan 2021 · Ligue 18 in 100
Rennes 0-1 LorientSun 7 Aug 2022 · Ligue 110 in 100- Rennes 1-2 LorientSun 3 Mar 2024 · Ligue 111 in 100
- Paris Saint Germain 2-2 LorientSun 3 May 2026 · Ligue 116 in 100
- Lorient 1-1 Paris Saint GermainWed 22 Dec 2021 · Ligue 117 in 100
Strasbourg 1-3 LorientSun 18 Feb 2024 · Ligue 117 in 100- Lorient 1-0 Monaco
Fri 13 Aug 2021 · Ligue 117 in 100 - Paris Saint Germain 0-0 LorientSat 12 Aug 2023 · Ligue 117 in 100
Lens 0-1 LorientSat 5 Sep 2026 · Ligue 117 in 100- Lorient 4-1 Lille
Sun 27 Aug 2023 · Ligue 118 in 100 - Lorient 3-1 Lyon
Wed 7 Sep 2022 · Ligue 119 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Paris Saint Germain 1-3 LorientSun 30 Apr 2023 · home win said79 in 100
- Lorient 3-2 Paris Saint GermainSun 31 Jan 2021 · away win said77 in 100
- Paris Saint Germain 2-2 LorientSun 3 May 2026 · home win said76 in 100
- Lorient 1-1 Paris Saint GermainWed 22 Dec 2021 · away win said76 in 100
- Rennes 0-1 LorientSun 7 Aug 2022 · home win said72 in 100
- Paris Saint Germain 0-0 LorientSat 12 Aug 2023 · home win said72 in 100
- Rennes 1-2 LorientSun 3 Mar 2024 · home win said69 in 100
- Monaco 2-2 LorientSun 17 Mar 2024 · home win said68 in 100
- Monaco 0-0 LorientSun 13 Feb 2022 · home win said67 in 100
- Lyon 0-0 LorientSun 5 Mar 2023 · home win said64 in 100
- Lorient 1-1 Paris Saint GermainWed 29 Oct 2025 · away win said64 in 100
- Lyon 3-3 LorientSun 8 Oct 2023 · home win said62 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Rennes | 10 | 10 | 19.7 | −9.7 |
  Monaco | 10 | 11 | 19.7 | −8.7 |
  Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 16 | 23.6 | −7.6 |
  Strasbourg | 10 | 13 | 16.2 | −3.2 |
  Ajaccio | 2 | 0 | 2.6 | −2.6 |
  Nice | 11 | 15 | 17.5 | −2.5 |
  Lyon | 10 | 16 | 18.5 | −2.5 |
 Clermont Foot | 6 | 7 | 8.6 | −1.6 |
  Saint-Etienne | 4 | 4 | 5.4 | −1.4 |
  Reims | 8 | 11 | 12.1 | −1.1 |
  Dijon | 2 | 1 | 1.8 | −0.8 |
  Lens | 11 | 20 | 20.3 | −0.3 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ligue 1 | 6 | 42 | 33 | 28 | 33 | 2.67 | 2.00 | 0.276 |
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 49 | 35 | 26 | 35 | 2.83 | 2.91 | 0.235 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 53 | 50 | 25 | 24 | 2.82 | 3.21 | 0.229 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 51 | 45 | 25 | 26 | 2.83 | 2.76 | 0.234 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 49 | 47 | 27 | 32 | 2.64 | 2.58 | 0.205 |
| 2020-21 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 46 | 45 | 27 | 24 | 2.62 | 3.11 | 0.225 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.