All questions

Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 222 league matches of Lens since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 49 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 26, happened 24 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free

LeagueAll five leaguesPremier LeagueLa LigaSerie ABundesligaLigue 1 SeasonEvery season2026-272025-262024-252023-242022-232021-222020-212019-202018-192017-18 ClubEvery clubArsenalAston VillaBournemouthBrentfordBrightonChelseaCoventryCrystal PalaceEvertonFulhamHullIpswichLeedsLiverpoolManchester CityManchester UnitedNewcastle UnitedNottingham ForestSunderlandTottenhamAlavesAthletic ClubAtletico MadridBarcelonaCelta VigoDeportivo La CorunaElcheEspanyolGetafeLevanteMalagaOsasunaRacing SantanderRayo VallecanoReal BetisReal MadridReal SociedadSevillaValenciaVillarrealAC MilanAtalantaBolognaCagliariComoFiorentinaFrosinoneGenoaInterJuventusLazioLecceMonzaNapoliParmaRomaSassuoloTorinoUdineseVeneziaAugsburgBayer LeverkusenBayern MunichBorussia DortmundBorussia M.GladbachEintracht FrankfurtElversbergFC CologneFreiburgHamburger SVHoffenheimMainz 05PaderbornRasenBallsport LeipzigSchalke 04Union BerlinVfB StuttgartWerder BremenAngersAuxerreBrestLe HavreLe MansLensLilleLorientLyonMarseilleMonacoNiceParis FCParis Saint GermainRennesStrasbourgToulouseTroyes Show

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
10–20 in 100	69	16.6	14.5	−2.1
20–30 in 100	321	25.8	27.1	+1.3
30–40 in 100	81	35.0	35.8	+0.8
40–50 in 100	86	45.4	39.5	−5.8
50–60 in 100	67	54.6	53.7	−0.9
60–70 in 100	28	63.9	67.9	+4.0

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

Share view

Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Lens	222	383	356.7	+26.3
Nice	12	24	14.7	+9.3
Metz	8	14	6.4	+7.6
Lille	12	23	16.8	+6.2
Strasbourg	13	18	14.4	+3.6
Paris Saint Germain	12	26	22.6	+3.4
Lorient	11	11	9.9	+1.1
Brest	12	12	11.8	+0.2
Montpellier	10	9	8.8	+0.2
Le Havre	6	5	5.0	0.0
Le Mans	1	1	1.0	0.0
Bordeaux	4	3	3.5	−0.5

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Rennes	12	6	16.9	−10.9
Monaco	13	15	20.0	−5.0
Toulouse	8	4	8.6	−4.6
Marseille	12	13	17.3	−4.3
Saint-Etienne	6	1	5.2	−4.2
Clermont Foot	6	1	4.7	−3.7
Angers	10	5	8.6	−3.6
Lyon	13	15	18.5	−3.5
Reims	10	7	10.4	−3.4
Troyes	4	1	3.4	−2.4
Paris FC	2	0	2.1	−2.1
Auxerre	7	4	5.5	−1.5

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Lens's matches; the current season so far

CSV Share view

Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	Ligue 1	6	50	50	25	17	3.08	3.50	0.277
2025-26	Ligue 1	34	51	62	25	12	2.95	2.97	0.197
2024-25	Ligue 1	34	51	41	26	21	2.83	2.38	0.248
2023-24	Ligue 1	34	50	56	26	26	2.80	2.41	0.205
2022-23	Ligue 1	38	53	58	25	24	2.79	2.55	0.169
2021-22	Ligue 1	38	48	42	27	29	2.65	2.89	0.222
2020-21	Ligue 1	38	49	37	27	32	2.62	2.87	0.218

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

Related questions

Who scores, starts and keeps a clean sheet next?Next round and fixturesWho wins the league, and how likely?Title, top four, relegationWho is over- or under-performing?Goals against expected goals