All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 108 league matches of Le Havre since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 47 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 26, happened 29 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches108each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened47 in 100Vesta said 51
Draws29 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.57Vesta expected 2.76
Likeliest score happened11 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 39 | 15.6 | 15.4 | −0.2 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 140 | 25.8 | 27.9 | +2.0 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 51 | 34.4 | 31.4 | −3.0 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 38 | 44.7 | 50.0 | +5.3 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 26 | 53.9 | 42.3 | −11.6 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 20 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 0.0 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Lille 1-2 Le Havre
Sat 8 Feb 2025 · Ligue 112 in 100
Lens 3-4 Le HavreSat 1 Mar 2025 · Ligue 114 in 100
Paris Saint Germain 3-3 Le HavreSat 27 Apr 2024 · Ligue 116 in 100
Strasbourg 2-3 Le HavreSat 17 May 2025 · Ligue 118 in 100- Le Havre 1-1 Monaco
Sat 26 Apr 2025 · Ligue 118 in 100 
Rennes 2-2 Le HavreSun 27 Aug 2023 · Ligue 120 in 100
Lorient 0-2 Le HavreSun 17 May 2026 · Ligue 121 in 100
Auxerre 1-2 Le HavreSun 4 May 2025 · Ligue 121 in 100- Lens 1-1 Le HavreSat 6 Apr 2024 · Ligue 122 in 100
- Lille 1-1 Le HavreSun 3 May 2026 · Ligue 122 in 100
Montpellier 2-2 Le HavreSun 13 Aug 2023 · Ligue 122 in 100- Le Havre 3-1 Nice
Sun 31 Aug 2025 · Ligue 122 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Paris Saint Germain 3-3 Le HavreSat 27 Apr 2024 · home win said75 in 100
- Le Havre 1-1 MonacoSat 26 Apr 2025 · away win said70 in 100
- Lille 1-2 Le HavreSat 8 Feb 2025 · home win said68 in 100
- Rennes 2-2 Le HavreSun 27 Aug 2023 · home win said67 in 100
- Lille 1-1 Le HavreSun 3 May 2026 · home win said67 in 100
- Lens 1-1 Le HavreSat 6 Apr 2024 · home win said65 in 100
- Lens 3-4 Le HavreSat 1 Mar 2025 · home win said63 in 100
- Montpellier 2-2 Le HavreSun 13 Aug 2023 · home win said62 in 100
Toulouse 0-0 Le HavreSun 2 Nov 2025 · home win said60 in 100- Rennes 1-1 Le HavreSun 18 Jan 2026 · home win said58 in 100
- Strasbourg 2-3 Le HavreSat 17 May 2025 · home win said57 in 100
Lyon 1-1 Le HavreSat 29 Aug 2026 · home win said57 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Le Havre | 108 | 103 | 111.8 | −8.8 |
  Auxerre | 4 | 1 | 6.0 | −5.0 |
  Lorient | 4 | 2 | 5.6 | −3.6 |
  Montpellier | 4 | 4 | 5.7 | −1.7 |
  Saint-Etienne | 2 | 1 | 2.6 | −1.6 |
  Toulouse | 7 | 10 | 11.6 | −1.6 |
  Nice | 6 | 10 | 11.5 | −1.5 |
  Monaco | 7 | 13 | 13.7 | −0.7 |
  Strasbourg | 6 | 9 | 9.7 | −0.7 |
  Lyon | 7 | 12 | 12.6 | −0.6 |
  Angers | 5 | 6 | 6.6 | −0.6 |
  Lens | 6 | 11 | 11.5 | −0.5 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Ligue 1 | 6 | 47 | 67 | 28 | 33 | 2.64 | 2.00 | 0.167 |
| 2025-26 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 50 | 41 | 26 | 41 | 2.69 | 2.24 | 0.179 |
| 2024-25 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 53 | 56 | 25 | 12 | 2.88 | 3.26 | 0.229 |
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 50 | 41 | 26 | 32 | 2.74 | 2.32 | 0.211 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.