All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 38 league matches of Real Oviedo since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 55 times in 100; it said 52. Draws: said 26, happened 29 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches38each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened55 in 100Vesta said 52
Draws29 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.26Vesta expected 2.59
Likeliest score happened18 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30 in 100 | 42 | 26.4 | 28.6 | +2.1 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 22 | 33.8 | 36.4 | +2.6 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Celta Vigo 0-3 Real Oviedo
Sun 12 Apr 2026 · La Liga15 in 100
Valencia 1-2 Real OviedoMon 29 Sep 2025 · La Liga23 in 100
Real Sociedad 3-3 Real OviedoSat 21 Feb 2026 · La Liga26 in 100
Girona 3-3 Real OviedoSat 25 Oct 2025 · La Liga27 in 100
Alaves 1-1 Real OviedoSun 4 Jan 2026 · La Liga27 in 100
Espanyol 1-1 Real OviedoMon 9 Mar 2026 · La Liga28 in 100- Real Oviedo 0-0 Celta VigoSat 20 Dec 2025 · La Liga28 in 100
- Real Oviedo 1-1 Villarreal
Thu 23 Apr 2026 · La Liga28 in 100 - Real Oviedo 1-1 Real Betis
Sat 10 Jan 2026 · La Liga28 in 100 - Real Oviedo 0-0 Osasuna
Mon 3 Nov 2025 · La Liga28 in 100 - Real Oviedo 1-2 Elche
Sun 26 Apr 2026 · La Liga28 in 100 - Real Oviedo 1-0 ValenciaSat 14 Mar 2026 · La Liga29 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Celta Vigo 0-3 Real OviedoSun 12 Apr 2026 · home win said62 in 100
- Alaves 1-1 Real OviedoSun 4 Jan 2026 · home win said57 in 100
- Real Sociedad 3-3 Real OviedoSat 21 Feb 2026 · home win said56 in 100
- Real Oviedo 0-0 Celta VigoSat 20 Dec 2025 · away win said51 in 100
- Espanyol 1-1 Real OviedoMon 9 Mar 2026 · home win said51 in 100
- Girona 3-3 Real OviedoSat 25 Oct 2025 · home win said51 in 100
- Real Oviedo 1-1 VillarrealThu 23 Apr 2026 · away win said49 in 100
- Valencia 1-2 Real OviedoMon 29 Sep 2025 · home win said48 in 100
- Real Oviedo 1-1 Real BetisSat 10 Jan 2026 · away win said48 in 100
- Real Oviedo 0-0 Rayo Vallecano
Sun 23 Nov 2025 · away win said46 in 100 - Real Oviedo 0-0 OsasunaMon 3 Nov 2025 · away win said44 in 100
- Real Oviedo 1-2 ElcheSun 26 Apr 2026 · home win said43 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Elche | 2 | 6 | 2.9 | +3.1 |
  Levante | 2 | 6 | 3.1 | +2.9 |
  Athletic Club | 2 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
  Real Madrid | 2 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 |
  Atletico Madrid | 2 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 |
  Getafe | 2 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 |
  Mallorca | 2 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
  Barcelona | 2 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
  Espanyol | 2 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 |
  Alaves | 2 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
  Osasuna | 2 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Oviedo | 38 | 29 | 35.3 | −6.3 |
  Valencia | 2 | 0 | 3.3 | −3.3 |
  Celta Vigo | 2 | 1 | 3.9 | −2.9 |
  Real Sociedad | 2 | 1 | 3.3 | −2.3 |
  Girona | 2 | 1 | 3.2 | −2.2 |
  Villarreal | 2 | 4 | 4.3 | −0.3 |
  Sevilla | 2 | 3 | 3.1 | −0.1 |
  Real Betis | 2 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
| Osasuna | 2 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
| Alaves | 2 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| Espanyol | 2 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Real Oviedo's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 52 | 55 | 26 | 29 | 2.59 | 2.26 | 0.170 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.