All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 228 league matches of Mallorca since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 53 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 28, happened 25 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches228each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened53 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 28
Goals a match2.39Vesta expected 2.49
Likeliest score happened15 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 69 | 15.9 | 14.5 | −1.4 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 232 | 26.0 | 22.4 | −3.6 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 195 | 33.4 | 34.4 | +1.0 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 86 | 44.5 | 52.3 | +7.8 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 45 | 54.6 | 44.4 | −10.2 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 21 | 64.6 | 71.4 | +6.8 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Atletico Madrid 1-2 Mallorca
Sat 4 Dec 2021 · La Liga10 in 100- Mallorca 0-1 Elche
Sat 4 Mar 2023 · La Liga15 in 100 - Mallorca 2-1 Real Madrid
Sat 4 Apr 2026 · La Liga15 in 100 - Mallorca 1-0 Atletico MadridSat 9 Apr 2022 · La Liga16 in 100
- Mallorca 1-0 Real MadridSun 5 Feb 2023 · La Liga16 in 100
- Mallorca 1-0 Real MadridSat 19 Oct 2019 · La Liga18 in 100
Eibar 1-2 MallorcaSat 7 Mar 2020 · La Liga18 in 100
Real Betis 1-2 MallorcaMon 23 Sep 2024 · La Liga18 in 100
Villarreal 0-2 MallorcaSun 6 Nov 2022 · La Liga19 in 100
Valencia 1-2 MallorcaSat 22 Oct 2022 · La Liga19 in 100
Celta Vigo 0-1 MallorcaMon 17 Apr 2023 · La Liga20 in 100- Mallorca 3-2 Athletic Club
Sat 17 Jan 2026 · La Liga20 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Atletico Madrid 1-2 MallorcaSat 4 Dec 2021 · home win said70 in 100
- Athletic Club 1-1 MallorcaSun 9 Mar 2025 · home win said64 in 100
- Mallorca 2-1 Real MadridSat 4 Apr 2026 · away win said63 in 100
- Mallorca 2-2 Barcelona
Tue 26 Sep 2023 · away win said63 in 100 - Mallorca 0-1 ElcheSat 4 Mar 2023 · home win said61 in 100
Sevilla 0-0 MallorcaWed 11 May 2022 · home win said61 in 100- Athletic Club 0-0 MallorcaMon 15 Aug 2022 · home win said59 in 100
- Mallorca 1-0 Real MadridSat 19 Oct 2019 · away win said59 in 100
- Mallorca 1-0 Atletico MadridSat 9 Apr 2022 · away win said59 in 100
- Mallorca 1-0 Real MadridSun 5 Feb 2023 · away win said59 in 100
- Celta Vigo 2-2 MallorcaSun 15 Dec 2019 · home win said58 in 100
- Eibar 1-2 MallorcaSat 7 Mar 2020 · home win said57 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Real Betis | 12 | 29 | 20.3 | +8.7 |
  Real Sociedad | 12 | 28 | 20.2 | +7.8 |
  Granada | 6 | 15 | 8.5 | +6.5 |
  Barcelona | 12 | 34 | 28.4 | +5.6 |
  Elche | 6 | 11 | 7.4 | +3.6 |
  Mallorca | 228 | 252 | 248.7 | +3.3 |
  Getafe | 12 | 20 | 17.2 | +2.8 |
  Espanyol | 10 | 16 | 13.8 | +2.2 |
  Levante | 6 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 |
  Atletico Madrid | 12 | 25 | 24.2 | +0.8 |
  Girona | 8 | 13 | 12.5 | +0.5 |
  Real Valladolid | 6 | 7 | 7.0 | 0.0 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 8 | 15.5 | −7.5 |
  Valencia | 12 | 14 | 18.1 | −4.1 |
  Eibar | 2 | 0 | 3.8 | −3.8 |
  Las Palmas | 4 | 1 | 4.5 | −3.5 |
  Athletic Club | 12 | 18 | 21.4 | −3.4 |
  Celta Vigo | 12 | 16 | 19.2 | −3.2 |
  Real Madrid | 12 | 25 | 27.2 | −2.2 |
  Osasuna | 12 | 16 | 18.0 | −2.0 |
  Alaves | 10 | 12 | 13.9 | −1.9 |
  Cadiz | 6 | 6 | 7.4 | −1.4 |
 Real Oviedo | 2 | 1 | 2.4 | −1.4 |
  Sevilla | 12 | 19 | 20.2 | −1.2 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 53 | 27 | 24 | 2.53 | 2.74 | 0.195 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 50 | 30 | 24 | 2.29 | 2.08 | 0.205 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 47 | 28 | 42 | 2.44 | 2.03 | 0.162 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 53 | 28 | 21 | 2.37 | 2.11 | 0.226 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 55 | 27 | 24 | 2.50 | 2.61 | 0.204 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 53 | 61 | 25 | 16 | 2.78 | 2.76 | 0.198 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.