All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 274 league matches of Osasuna since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 52 times in 100; it said 47. Draws: said 28, happened 29 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches274each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened52 in 100Vesta said 47
Draws29 in 100Vesta said 28
Goals a match2.46Vesta expected 2.50
Likeliest score happened15 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 70 | 16.1 | 14.3 | −1.9 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 304 | 26.4 | 24.7 | −1.7 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 244 | 33.5 | 29.5 | −4.0 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 108 | 44.2 | 54.6 | +10.4 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 54 | 54.4 | 63.0 | +8.6 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 24 | 64.4 | 62.5 | −1.9 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Barcelona 1-2 Osasuna
Thu 16 Jul 2020 · La Liga10 in 100
Atletico Madrid 1-4 OsasunaSun 19 May 2024 · La Liga11 in 100- Osasuna 4-2 BarcelonaSat 28 Sep 2024 · La Liga15 in 100
Villarreal 1-2 OsasunaSun 11 Apr 2021 · La Liga17 in 100
Real Sociedad 0-1 OsasunaSat 10 Feb 2024 · La Liga17 in 100- Real Sociedad 0-2 OsasunaSun 27 Oct 2024 · La Liga18 in 100
- Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid
Sat 21 Feb 2026 · La Liga18 in 100 - Villarreal 1-2 OsasunaSun 17 Oct 2021 · La Liga19 in 100
- Real Madrid 1-1 OsasunaSun 2 Oct 2022 · La Liga19 in 100
- Osasuna 1-0 VillarrealSat 5 Mar 2022 · La Liga20 in 100
Valencia 1-2 OsasunaSun 27 Aug 2023 · La Liga20 in 100- Real Madrid 0-0 OsasunaWed 27 Oct 2021 · La Liga21 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Barcelona 1-2 OsasunaThu 16 Jul 2020 · home win said72 in 100
- Real Madrid 1-1 OsasunaSun 2 Oct 2022 · home win said70 in 100
- Atletico Madrid 1-4 OsasunaSun 19 May 2024 · home win said69 in 100
- Real Madrid 0-0 OsasunaWed 27 Oct 2021 · home win said67 in 100
Athletic Club 2-2 OsasunaSat 11 May 2024 · home win said65 in 100- Osasuna 4-2 BarcelonaSat 28 Sep 2024 · away win said64 in 100
- Osasuna 0-0 Real MadridSat 9 Jan 2021 · away win said64 in 100
- Real Sociedad 1-1 OsasunaSun 3 Jan 2021 · home win said64 in 100
- Athletic Club 0-0 OsasunaSun 30 Mar 2025 · home win said62 in 100
- Osasuna 1-1 Real MadridSat 15 Feb 2025 · away win said62 in 100
Real Betis 1-1 OsasunaSun 11 May 2025 · home win said60 in 100- Osasuna 2-2 BarcelonaSat 31 Aug 2019 · away win said60 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Real Betis | 15 | 36 | 23.4 | +12.6 |
  Atletico Madrid | 15 | 39 | 28.7 | +10.3 |
  Osasuna | 274 | 343 | 336.1 | +6.9 |
  Getafe | 15 | 26 | 19.9 | +6.1 |
  Real Sociedad | 14 | 27 | 23.5 | +3.5 |
  Granada | 8 | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 |
  Real Madrid | 14 | 31 | 29.7 | +1.3 |
  Valencia | 14 | 21 | 19.7 | +1.3 |
  Girona | 8 | 13 | 12.0 | +1.0 |
  Barcelona | 14 | 32 | 31.5 | +0.5 |
  Athletic Club | 14 | 23 | 22.9 | +0.1 |
  Espanyol | 11 | 13 | 13.1 | −0.1 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Alaves | 13 | 7 | 16.2 | −9.2 |
  Cadiz | 8 | 1 | 9.4 | −8.4 |
  Almeria | 4 | 0 | 4.5 | −4.5 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 11 | 15.3 | −4.3 |
  Eibar | 4 | 2 | 5.8 | −3.8 |
  Celta Vigo | 15 | 18 | 21.3 | −3.3 |
  Leganes | 4 | 2 | 4.8 | −2.8 |
  Elche | 8 | 6 | 8.3 | −2.3 |
  Sevilla | 14 | 20 | 21.9 | −1.9 |
  Real Valladolid | 8 | 7 | 8.9 | −1.9 |
  Las Palmas | 4 | 3 | 4.9 | −1.9 |
  Mallorca | 12 | 13 | 14.4 | −1.4 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | La Liga | 8 | 49 | 50 | 28 | 25 | 2.56 | 3.25 | 0.207 |
| 2025-26 | La Liga | 38 | 46 | 58 | 28 | 24 | 2.59 | 2.47 | 0.196 |
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 50 | 45 | 27 | 42 | 2.62 | 2.63 | 0.180 |
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 53 | 28 | 24 | 2.51 | 2.66 | 0.209 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 61 | 29 | 21 | 2.38 | 2.08 | 0.194 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 46 | 47 | 29 | 29 | 2.36 | 2.32 | 0.207 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 58 | 28 | 29 | 2.39 | 2.24 | 0.189 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 45 | 27 | 34 | 2.60 | 2.63 | 0.207 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.