All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 44 league matches of Sunderland since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 36 times in 100; it said 48. Draws: said 27, happened 30 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches44each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened36 in 100Vesta said 48
Draws30 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.45Vesta expected 2.59
Likeliest score happened16 in 100Vesta said 14
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30 in 100 | 52 | 26.6 | 30.8 | +4.1 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 34 | 33.7 | 35.3 | +1.6 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Newcastle United 1-2 Sunderland
Sun 22 Mar 2026 · Premier League18 in 100
Liverpool 1-1 SunderlandWed 3 Dec 2025 · Premier League20 in 100
Chelsea 1-2 SunderlandSat 25 Oct 2025 · Premier League20 in 100
Everton 1-3 SunderlandSun 17 May 2026 · Premier League22 in 100- Sunderland 0-0 Manchester City
Thu 1 Jan 2026 · Premier League23 in 100 
Leeds 0-1 SunderlandTue 3 Mar 2026 · Premier League24 in 100
Bournemouth 1-1 SunderlandSat 28 Feb 2026 · Premier League25 in 100- Sunderland 2-2 Arsenal
Sat 8 Nov 2025 · Premier League26 in 100 
Brentford 1-1 SunderlandSat 5 Sep 2026 · Premier League26 in 100- Sunderland 2-1 ChelseaSun 24 May 2026 · Premier League26 in 100
- Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle UnitedSun 14 Dec 2025 · Premier League26 in 100
- Sunderland 0-0 Manchester United
Sat 9 May 2026 · Premier League27 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Liverpool 1-1 SunderlandWed 3 Dec 2025 · home win said69 in 100
- Sunderland 0-0 Manchester CityThu 1 Jan 2026 · away win said63 in 100
- Sunderland 2-2 ArsenalSat 8 Nov 2025 · away win said59 in 100
- Newcastle United 1-2 SunderlandSun 22 Mar 2026 · home win said56 in 100
- Bournemouth 1-1 SunderlandSat 28 Feb 2026 · home win said55 in 100
- Brentford 1-1 SunderlandSat 5 Sep 2026 · home win said54 in 100
- Chelsea 1-2 SunderlandSat 25 Oct 2025 · home win said54 in 100
- Sunderland 0-0 Manchester UnitedSat 9 May 2026 · away win said50 in 100
- Everton 1-3 SunderlandSun 17 May 2026 · home win said49 in 100
Brighton 0-0 SunderlandSat 20 Dec 2025 · home win said49 in 100
Crystal Palace 0-0 SunderlandSat 13 Sep 2025 · home win said49 in 100- Leeds 0-1 SunderlandTue 3 Mar 2026 · home win said48 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Sunderland | 44 | 58 | 48.0 | +10.0 |
  Brighton | 3 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 |
  Ipswich | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7 |
  Fulham | 3 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 |
  Aston Villa | 2 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
  Burnley | 2 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
  Manchester United | 2 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 |
  Arsenal | 3 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |
  Manchester City | 3 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 |
  Nottingham Forest | 2 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
  West Ham | 2 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 |
  Liverpool | 2 | 4 | 4.2 | −0.2 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Newcastle United | 2 | 0 | 3.6 | −3.6 |
  Chelsea | 2 | 0 | 3.5 | −3.5 |
  Bournemouth | 2 | 1 | 3.4 | −2.4 |
  Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | 3.3 | −2.3 |
  Leeds | 2 | 1 | 3.1 | −2.1 |
  Everton | 2 | 1 | 3.0 | −2.0 |
  Tottenham | 2 | 1 | 2.8 | −1.8 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 1 | 2.3 | −1.3 |
  Brentford | 3 | 4 | 5.2 | −1.2 |
| Liverpool | 2 | 4 | 4.2 | −0.2 |
| West Ham | 2 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Sunderland's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 49 | 50 | 27 | 17 | 2.68 | 3.00 | 0.185 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 48 | 34 | 28 | 32 | 2.57 | 2.37 | 0.230 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.