All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 158 league matches of Leeds since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 56 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 25, happened 27 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches158each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened56 in 100Vesta said 50
Draws27 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match3.04Vesta expected 3.01
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 50 | 16.5 | 8.0 | −8.5 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 196 | 25.7 | 26.0 | +0.3 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 87 | 34.9 | 28.7 | −6.1 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 63 | 44.8 | 55.6 | +10.8 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 36 | 55.3 | 55.6 | +0.2 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Liverpool 1-2 Leeds
Sat 29 Oct 2022 · Premier League7 in 100
Manchester City 1-2 LeedsSat 10 Apr 2021 · Premier League7 in 100- Leeds 3-0 Chelsea
Sun 21 Aug 2022 · Premier League12 in 100 - Leeds 1-1 Manchester CitySat 3 Oct 2020 · Premier League14 in 100
Brentford 1-2 LeedsSun 22 May 2022 · Premier League19 in 100
Leicester 1-3 LeedsSun 31 Jan 2021 · Premier League20 in 100
Manchester United 1-2 LeedsMon 13 Apr 2026 · Premier League20 in 100- Chelsea 2-2 LeedsTue 10 Feb 2026 · Premier League21 in 100
- Leeds 3-1 ChelseaWed 3 Dec 2025 · Premier League21 in 100
- Leeds 3-3 LiverpoolSat 6 Dec 2025 · Premier League22 in 100
- Leeds 2-2 Newcastle United
Sat 13 May 2023 · Premier League22 in 100 - Leeds 0-0 ChelseaSat 13 Mar 2021 · Premier League22 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Manchester City 1-2 LeedsSat 10 Apr 2021 · home win said80 in 100
- Liverpool 1-2 LeedsSat 29 Oct 2022 · home win said80 in 100
- Leeds 1-1 Manchester CitySat 3 Oct 2020 · away win said76 in 100
- Leeds 3-0 ChelseaSun 21 Aug 2022 · away win said68 in 100
- Leeds 3-3 LiverpoolSat 6 Dec 2025 · away win said62 in 100
- Chelsea 2-2 LeedsTue 10 Feb 2026 · home win said62 in 100
- Leeds 2-2 Newcastle UnitedSat 13 May 2023 · away win said61 in 100
- Manchester United 2-2 LeedsWed 8 Feb 2023 · home win said60 in 100
- Newcastle United 0-0 LeedsSat 31 Dec 2022 · home win said60 in 100
- Leeds 0-0 ChelseaSat 13 Mar 2021 · away win said60 in 100
- Leeds 0-0 Manchester UnitedSun 25 Apr 2021 · away win said58 in 100
- Liverpool 0-0 LeedsThu 1 Jan 2026 · home win said58 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Arsenal | 9 | 25 | 17.7 | +7.3 |
  Tottenham | 8 | 19 | 12.9 | +6.1 |
  West Ham | 8 | 16 | 12.0 | +4.0 |
  Aston Villa | 8 | 15 | 12.6 | +2.4 |
  Sunderland | 2 | 4 | 2.4 | +1.6 |
  Brighton | 9 | 16 | 14.4 | +1.6 |
  Leicester | 6 | 11 | 9.7 | +1.3 |
  Fulham | 6 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 |
  Everton | 8 | 12 | 10.8 | +1.2 |
  Manchester United | 8 | 15 | 14.2 | +0.8 |
  Crystal Palace | 9 | 12 | 12.4 | −0.4 |
  Nottingham Forest | 5 | 6 | 6.4 | −0.4 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 8 | 7 | 10.4 | −3.4 |
  Brentford | 7 | 8 | 11.2 | −3.2 |
  Liverpool | 8 | 15 | 18.0 | −3.0 |
  Leeds | 158 | 184 | 187.0 | −3.0 |
  Newcastle United | 9 | 10 | 12.9 | −2.9 |
  Chelsea | 8 | 14 | 16.7 | −2.7 |
  Southampton | 6 | 5 | 7.7 | −2.7 |
  Watford | 2 | 0 | 2.3 | −2.3 |
  Sheffield United | 2 | 0 | 2.3 | −2.3 |
  Burnley | 6 | 4 | 5.6 | −1.6 |
  Norwich | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | −1.5 |
  West Bromwich Albion | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | −1.5 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Premier League | 6 | 46 | 33 | 27 | 50 | 2.86 | 2.17 | 0.170 |
| 2025-26 | Premier League | 38 | 48 | 47 | 26 | 37 | 2.84 | 2.76 | 0.197 |
| 2022-23 | Premier League | 38 | 53 | 58 | 24 | 26 | 3.03 | 3.32 | 0.187 |
| 2021-22 | Premier League | 38 | 51 | 58 | 24 | 29 | 3.08 | 3.18 | 0.175 |
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 50 | 63 | 24 | 13 | 3.13 | 3.05 | 0.226 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.