All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 110 league matches of Clermont Foot since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 49 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 26, happened 25 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches110each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened49 in 100Vesta said 50
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.61Vesta expected 2.75
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 38 | 15.4 | 21.1 | +5.7 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 145 | 26.1 | 29.0 | +2.9 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 59 | 34.7 | 28.8 | −5.9 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 44 | 45.5 | 47.7 | +2.3 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 22 | 55.1 | 45.5 | −9.7 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Clermont Foot
Sat 6 Apr 2024 · Ligue 110 in 100
Lyon 0-1 Clermont FootSun 1 Jan 2023 · Ligue 113 in 100- Paris Saint Germain 2-3 Clermont FootSat 3 Jun 2023 · Ligue 113 in 100
Nice 0-1 Clermont FootSun 6 Feb 2022 · Ligue 115 in 100
Marseille 0-2 Clermont FootSun 20 Feb 2022 · Ligue 116 in 100- Clermont Foot 2-1 Rennes
Wed 11 Jan 2023 · Ligue 116 in 100 - Clermont Foot 2-1 RennesSun 23 Jan 2022 · Ligue 117 in 100
Monaco 1-1 Clermont FootSun 16 Oct 2022 · Ligue 119 in 100- Nice 1-2 Clermont FootSun 23 Apr 2023 · Ligue 121 in 100
- Clermont Foot 0-1 Metz
Sun 27 Aug 2023 · Ligue 121 in 100 
Bordeaux 0-2 Clermont FootSun 8 Aug 2021 · Ligue 121 in 100- Nice 0-0 Clermont FootSun 25 Feb 2024 · Ligue 122 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Clermont FootSat 6 Apr 2024 · home win said85 in 100
- Monaco 1-1 Clermont FootSun 16 Oct 2022 · home win said69 in 100
- Lyon 0-1 Clermont FootSun 1 Jan 2023 · home win said68 in 100
- Paris Saint Germain 2-3 Clermont FootSat 3 Jun 2023 · home win said68 in 100
- Nice 0-0 Clermont FootSun 25 Feb 2024 · home win said66 in 100
- Nice 0-1 Clermont FootSun 6 Feb 2022 · home win said61 in 100
Lille 0-0 Clermont FootWed 1 Feb 2023 · home win said61 in 100- Clermont Foot 2-1 RennesWed 11 Jan 2023 · away win said61 in 100
- Clermont Foot 0-0 Paris Saint GermainSat 30 Sep 2023 · away win said59 in 100
- Clermont Foot 2-1 RennesSun 23 Jan 2022 · away win said59 in 100
- Marseille 0-2 Clermont FootSun 20 Feb 2022 · home win said59 in 100
Strasbourg 0-0 Clermont FootSun 11 Sep 2022 · home win said59 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Brest | 6 | 14 | 8.4 | +5.6 |
  Monaco | 6 | 16 | 11.4 | +4.6 |
  Lens | 6 | 16 | 11.8 | +4.2 |
  Metz | 4 | 8 | 4.6 | +3.4 |
  Saint-Etienne | 2 | 6 | 2.7 | +3.3 |
  Marseille | 6 | 15 | 11.8 | +3.2 |
  Nantes | 6 | 11 | 8.7 | +2.3 |
  Lorient | 6 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 |
  Rennes | 6 | 12 | 11.3 | +0.7 |
 Clermont Foot | 110 | 120 | 119.3 | +0.7 |
  Le Havre | 2 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
  Montpellier | 6 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Clermont Foot's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Ligue 1 | 34 | 51 | 56 | 26 | 29 | 2.77 | 2.53 | 0.202 |
| 2022-23 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 51 | 45 | 26 | 21 | 2.79 | 2.47 | 0.247 |
| 2021-22 | Ligue 1 | 38 | 48 | 47 | 27 | 24 | 2.71 | 2.82 | 0.222 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.