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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 76 league matches of Norwich since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 70 times in 100; it said 59. Draws: said 22, happened 17 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
10–20 in 100	41	15.3	12.2	−3.1
20–30 in 100	81	25.0	19.8	−5.2
40–50 in 100	20	44.7	65.0	+20.3
50–60 in 100	22	54.3	63.6	+9.3

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Aston Villa	4	12	6.6	+5.4
West Ham	4	12	7.4	+4.6
Manchester United	4	12	8.6	+3.4
Chelsea	4	12	9.2	+2.8
Watford	4	9	6.5	+2.5
Sheffield United	2	6	3.7	+2.3
Arsenal	4	10	7.9	+2.1
Leeds	2	6	4.0	+2.0
Tottenham	4	10	8.3	+1.7
Southampton	4	9	7.5	+1.5
Liverpool	4	12	10.6	+1.4
Crystal Palace	4	8	6.9	+1.1

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Norwich	76	43	62.2	−19.2
Bournemouth	2	1	3.1	−2.1
Everton	4	6	8.1	−2.1
Leicester	4	7	8.9	−1.9
Manchester City	4	9	10.7	−1.7
Brentford	2	3	3.9	−0.9
Newcastle United	4	5	5.9	−0.9
Brighton	4	8	7.5	+0.5
Wolverhampton Wanderers	4	8	7.5	+0.5
Burnley	4	7	6.2	+0.8
Crystal Palace	4	8	6.9	+1.1
Liverpool	4	12	10.6	+1.4

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Norwich's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2021-22	Premier League	38	62	68	22	18	2.91	2.82	0.143
2019-20	Premier League	38	56	71	22	16	3.11	2.66	0.197

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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