All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 76 league matches of West Bromwich Albion since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 53 times in 100; it said 55. Draws: said 24, happened 32 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches76each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened53 in 100Vesta said 55
Draws32 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.61Vesta expected 2.72
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 33 | 15.9 | 21.2 | +5.3 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 87 | 25.8 | 26.4 | +0.7 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 27 | 34.0 | 29.6 | −4.4 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 22 | 44.8 | 45.5 | +0.7 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Chelsea 2-5 West Bromwich Albion
Sat 3 Apr 2021 · Premier League6 in 100
Manchester City 1-1 West Bromwich AlbionTue 15 Dec 2020 · Premier League8 in 100
Liverpool 1-1 West Bromwich AlbionSun 27 Dec 2020 · Premier League8 in 100
Manchester United 0-1 West Bromwich AlbionSun 15 Apr 2018 · Premier League8 in 100
Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-3 West Bromwich AlbionSat 16 Jan 2021 · Premier League12 in 100- West Bromwich Albion 1-0 Tottenham
Sat 5 May 2018 · Premier League14 in 100 - West Bromwich Albion 1-1 Manchester UnitedSun 14 Feb 2021 · Premier League15 in 100
- Tottenham 1-1 West Bromwich AlbionSat 25 Nov 2017 · Premier League16 in 100
- West Bromwich Albion 3-3 ChelseaSat 26 Sep 2020 · Premier League17 in 100
- Liverpool 0-0 West Bromwich AlbionWed 13 Dec 2017 · Premier League17 in 100
- West Bromwich Albion 1-0 Brighton
Sat 27 Feb 2021 · Premier League17 in 100 - West Bromwich Albion 2-2 LiverpoolSat 21 Apr 2018 · Premier League21 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Manchester City 1-1 West Bromwich AlbionTue 15 Dec 2020 · home win said90 in 100
- Liverpool 1-1 West Bromwich AlbionSun 27 Dec 2020 · home win said89 in 100
- Tottenham 1-1 West Bromwich AlbionSat 25 Nov 2017 · home win said78 in 100
- West Bromwich Albion 1-1 Manchester UnitedSun 14 Feb 2021 · away win said78 in 100
- Chelsea 2-5 West Bromwich AlbionSat 3 Apr 2021 · home win said78 in 100
- Liverpool 0-0 West Bromwich AlbionWed 13 Dec 2017 · home win said75 in 100
- Manchester United 0-1 West Bromwich AlbionSun 15 Apr 2018 · home win said74 in 100
- West Bromwich Albion 3-3 ChelseaSat 26 Sep 2020 · away win said72 in 100
- West Bromwich Albion 2-2 LiverpoolSat 21 Apr 2018 · away win said68 in 100
- Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-3 West Bromwich AlbionSat 16 Jan 2021 · home win said67 in 100
- West Bromwich Albion 1-0 TottenhamSat 5 May 2018 · away win said64 in 100
- West Bromwich Albion 1-1 Arsenal
Sun 31 Dec 2017 · away win said57 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Crystal Palace | 4 | 10 | 6.0 | +4.0 |
  Huddersfield | 2 | 6 | 2.4 | +3.6 |
  Leicester | 4 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 |
  West Ham | 4 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 |
  Southampton | 4 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 |
  Leeds | 2 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 |
  Arsenal | 4 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 |
  Swansea | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 |
  Everton | 4 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 |
  Watford | 2 | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 |
  Stoke | 2 | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 |
  Fulham | 2 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  West Bromwich Albion | 76 | 57 | 72.2 | −15.2 |
  Liverpool | 4 | 6 | 9.8 | −3.8 |
  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 1 | 3.8 | −2.8 |
  Brighton | 4 | 4 | 6.3 | −2.3 |
  Chelsea | 4 | 7 | 9.0 | −2.0 |
  Manchester United | 4 | 7 | 9.0 | −2.0 |
  Tottenham | 4 | 7 | 8.8 | −1.8 |
  Newcastle United | 4 | 5 | 5.9 | −0.9 |
  Burnley | 4 | 5 | 5.8 | −0.8 |
  Manchester City | 4 | 10 | 10.7 | −0.7 |
  Sheffield United | 2 | 3 | 3.3 | −0.3 |
  Bournemouth | 2 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
West Bromwich Albion's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Premier League | 38 | 59 | 58 | 23 | 29 | 2.87 | 2.92 | 0.198 |
| 2017-18 | Premier League | 38 | 52 | 47 | 26 | 34 | 2.56 | 2.29 | 0.216 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.