Premier League

Every remaining match simulated 10,000 times with Vesta’s strengths of today, added to the table as it stands. Sorted by average finishing position.

Premier League 2026-27: projected final table

#	Team	Now	Final ptsPts	Range	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3Bot. 3	Every position
1	Manchester City	15	75	66–84	46%	96%	–
2	Arsenal	12	75	66–84	45%	96%	–
3	Brighton	10	62	53–72	3%	54%	<1%
4	Liverpool	9	61	52–71	3%	47%	<1%
5	Manchester United	5	59	49–68	1%	35%	<1%
6	Brentford	9	56	46–65	<1%	20%	1%
7	Leeds	9	54	45–63	<1%	13%	2%
8	Chelsea	7	53	43–62	<1%	10%	4%
9	Bournemouth	3	52	43–62	<1%	9%	4%
10	Everton	9	51	42–60	<1%	6%	5%
11	Hull	8	49	40–58	<1%	4%	8%
12	Newcastle United	8	49	40–59	<1%	4%	8%
13	Nottingham Forest	5	47	38–56	<1%	2%	13%
14	Sunderland	4	45	36–54	<1%	1%	19%
15	Aston Villa	4	44	35–54	<1%	<1%	23%
16	Crystal Palace	4	43	34–53	–	<1%	27%
17	Fulham	2	40	31–49	–	<1%	43%
18	Ipswich	6	40	31–49	–	<1%	45%
19	Coventry	3	40	31–49	–	<1%	44%
20	Tottenham	2	39	30–48	–	<1%	52%

Range: 8 in 10 simulated seasons end between these points. Strengths stay as they are today: injuries, transfers and changes of coach are not in it, nor are points deductions. Computed Sat 3 Oct 2026, on data up to Sun 20 Sep 2026.

#	Team	W	D	L	Goals for	Range	Against	Range	Diff.
1	Manchester City	22	8	8	75	66–85	45	37–53	+31
2	Arsenal	22	8	7	67	58–77	37	30–45	+30
3	Brighton	18	10	11	71	62–80	50	42–58	+21
4	Liverpool	17	12	10	61	52–70	47	39–55	+14
5	Manchester United	16	11	11	65	56–74	52	44–60	+13
6	Brentford	15	12	12	61	52–69	52	44–61	+8
7	Leeds	14	12	12	52	44–61	48	40–57	+4
8	Chelsea	14	10	14	60	52–69	61	53–70	-1
9	Bournemouth	13	12	13	56	48–65	52	44–61	+4
10	Everton	13	12	13	48	40–56	50	41–58	-2
11	Hull	13	11	14	48	40–56	51	43–60	-3
12	Newcastle United	13	11	14	55	46–63	61	52–70	-6
13	Nottingham Forest	12	11	15	47	39–56	53	44–61	-5
14	Sunderland	12	10	16	50	42–58	59	51–68	-10
15	Aston Villa	11	10	17	48	40–57	60	51–69	-12
16	Crystal Palace	11	10	17	50	42–58	64	55–73	-14
17	Fulham	10	11	17	46	39–54	59	51–68	-13
18	Ipswich	11	8	19	48	40–56	69	60–78	-21
19	Coventry	10	9	18	41	33–49	61	52–70	-20
20	Tottenham	9	11	18	41	34–49	60	51–68	-18

Averages over the simulated seasons (the matches played included), so a row may not add up to the matches of a season after rounding.

Goals at the end of the season: the goals of the simulated rest of the season shared among each team's players by their recent part in its attack.

Assists are shared the same way, by each player's recent part in creating chances.

The chances that moved most, in percentage points: the projection now against the one made with the data of a week of matches ago.

• +22Brighton: top 4 32% → 54%
• −18Coventry: bottom 3 62% → 44%
• −16Chelsea: top 4 26% → 10%
• +12Ipswich: bottom 3 33% → 45%
• −12Aston Villa: bottom 3 35% → 23%
• +11Liverpool: top 4 36% → 47%

Expected points: what the chances of every match (expected goals) were worth, on average. A team above them took more points than its chances, from finishing, goalkeeping or luck.

Team	Points	Expected	Difference
Manchester City	15	9.3	+5.7
Newcastle United	8	4.7	+3.3
Arsenal	12	9.5	+2.5
Hull	8	5.7	+2.3
Leeds	9	7.2	+1.8
Everton	9	7.7	+1.3
Liverpool	9	7.8	+1.2
Brighton	10	9.1	+0.9
Chelsea	7	6.1	+0.9
Brentford	9	8.3	+0.7
Ipswich	6	5.8	+0.2
Aston Villa	4	4.3	−0.3
Crystal Palace	4	5.6	−1.6
Coventry	3	4.8	−1.8
Manchester United	5	8.2	−3.2
Fulham	2	5.4	−3.4
Tottenham	2	5.6	−3.6
Sunderland	4	7.7	−3.7
Nottingham Forest	5	8.8	−3.8
Bournemouth	3	7.7	−4.7