All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 76 league matches of SD Huesca since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 46 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 26, happened 33 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches76each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened46 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws33 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.57Vesta expected 2.65
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 24 | 15.7 | 4.2 | −11.5 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 89 | 26.6 | 28.1 | +1.5 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 52 | 34.0 | 32.7 | −1.3 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 32 | 44.2 | 40.6 | −3.6 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Eibar 1-2 SD Huesca
Sun 19 Aug 2018 · La Liga10 in 100- SD Huesca 0-0 Barcelona
Sat 13 Apr 2019 · La Liga15 in 100 
Villarreal 1-1 SD HuescaSun 28 Apr 2019 · La Liga21 in 100
Real Sociedad 0-0 SD HuescaSun 27 Jan 2019 · La Liga22 in 100- Villarreal 1-1 SD HuescaSun 13 Sep 2020 · La Liga24 in 100
- SD Huesca 1-0 Real SociedadSat 1 May 2021 · La Liga24 in 100
Levante 2-2 SD HuescaSun 7 Apr 2019 · La Liga24 in 100- SD Huesca 3-3 Celta Vigo
Wed 3 Apr 2019 · La Liga25 in 100 - SD Huesca 0-0 Atletico Madrid
Wed 30 Sep 2020 · La Liga25 in 100 
Rayo Vallecano 0-0 SD HuescaSat 20 Apr 2019 · La Liga25 in 100- SD Huesca 2-2 LevanteSat 24 Nov 2018 · La Liga26 in 100
- SD Huesca 0-0 VillarrealSat 23 Jan 2021 · La Liga26 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- SD Huesca 0-0 BarcelonaSat 13 Apr 2019 · away win said74 in 100
- Eibar 1-2 SD HuescaSun 19 Aug 2018 · home win said70 in 100
- Real Sociedad 0-0 SD HuescaSun 27 Jan 2019 · home win said63 in 100
- Villarreal 1-1 SD HuescaSun 28 Apr 2019 · home win said61 in 100
- SD Huesca 0-0 Atletico MadridWed 30 Sep 2020 · away win said57 in 100
- Villarreal 1-1 SD HuescaSun 13 Sep 2020 · home win said57 in 100
- SD Huesca 0-0 VillarrealSat 23 Jan 2021 · away win said54 in 100
Athletic Club 2-2 SD HuescaTue 28 Aug 2018 · home win said49 in 100- SD Huesca 1-0 Real SociedadSat 1 May 2021 · away win said49 in 100
- SD Huesca 3-3 Celta VigoWed 3 Apr 2019 · home win said47 in 100
- Rayo Vallecano 0-0 SD HuescaSat 20 Apr 2019 · home win said46 in 100
- Eibar 1-1 SD HuescaSat 27 Feb 2021 · home win said46 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Celta Vigo | 4 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 |
  Alaves | 4 | 9 | 5.1 | +3.9 |
  Cadiz | 2 | 6 | 2.4 | +3.6 |
  Getafe | 4 | 10 | 6.7 | +3.3 |
  Real Madrid | 4 | 12 | 9.1 | +2.9 |
  Real Betis | 4 | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 |
  Atletico Madrid | 4 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 |
  Valencia | 4 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 |
  Sevilla | 4 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
  Espanyol | 2 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 |
  Athletic Club | 4 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  SD Huesca | 76 | 67 | 83.1 | −16.1 |
  Eibar | 4 | 2 | 6.7 | −4.7 |
  Villarreal | 4 | 4 | 7.2 | −3.2 |
  Levante | 4 | 3 | 5.5 | −2.5 |
  Granada | 2 | 1 | 2.9 | −1.9 |
  Girona | 2 | 1 | 2.8 | −1.8 |
  Real Valladolid | 4 | 4 | 5.4 | −1.4 |
  Elche | 2 | 1 | 2.3 | −1.3 |
  Osasuna | 2 | 2 | 2.8 | −0.8 |
  Real Sociedad | 4 | 7 | 7.4 | −0.4 |
  Leganes | 2 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
  Barcelona | 4 | 10 | 9.6 | +0.4 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
SD Huesca's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 45 | 28 | 34 | 2.44 | 2.29 | 0.179 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 51 | 47 | 25 | 32 | 2.85 | 2.84 | 0.193 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.