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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 152 league matches of Cadiz since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 46 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 27, happened 35 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
10–20 in 100	54	16.0	20.4	+4.4
20–30 in 100	160	26.5	30.0	+3.5
30–40 in 100	118	33.5	32.2	−1.3
40–50 in 100	51	44.1	41.2	−2.9
50–60 in 100	35	54.5	54.3	−0.2

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Osasuna	8	22	12.2	+9.8
Real Sociedad	8	20	14.9	+5.1
Sevilla	8	17	13.7	+3.3
Elche	6	9	6.9	+2.1
Athletic Club	8	16	14.6	+1.4
Real Betis	8	15	13.9	+1.1
Atletico Madrid	8	18	16.9	+1.1
Almeria	4	6	5.1	+0.9
Mallorca	6	9	8.7	+0.3
Getafe	8	12	11.8	+0.2
Girona	4	7	7.0	0.0
Espanyol	4	6	6.1	−0.1

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Villarreal	8	10	15.5	−5.5
Barcelona	8	14	18.9	−4.9
Valencia	8	9	12.5	−3.5
Real Valladolid	4	2	5.2	−3.2
SD Huesca	2	0	3.0	−3.0
Eibar	2	0	3.0	−3.0
Celta Vigo	8	10	12.8	−2.8
Levante	4	3	5.8	−2.8
Granada	6	6	8.2	−2.2
Rayo Vallecano	6	8	9.7	−1.7
Cadiz	152	158	159.2	−1.2
Alaves	6	7	8.0	−1.0

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Cadiz's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2023-24	La Liga	38	50	53	27	39	2.51	2.13	0.168
2022-23	La Liga	38	51	50	26	32	2.59	2.18	0.195
2021-22	La Liga	38	50	42	27	39	2.47	2.26	0.222
2020-21	La Liga	38	46	39	29	29	2.30	2.47	0.224

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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