All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 152 league matches of Granada since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 58 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 26, happened 25 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches152each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened58 in 100Vesta said 50
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.84Vesta expected 2.63
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 55 | 16.2 | 18.2 | +2.0 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 181 | 26.3 | 23.8 | −2.5 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 89 | 34.0 | 31.5 | −2.5 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 52 | 44.3 | 44.2 | 0.0 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 36 | 54.7 | 77.8 | +23.1 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 21 | 63.4 | 61.9 | −1.5 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Barcelona 1-2 Granada
Thu 29 Apr 2021 · La Liga6 in 100- Barcelona 3-3 GranadaSun 11 Feb 2024 · La Liga12 in 100
- Granada 1-0 Sevilla
Sun 3 Oct 2021 · La Liga14 in 100 - Barcelona 1-1 GranadaMon 20 Sep 2021 · La Liga14 in 100
- Granada 2-1 Atletico Madrid
Wed 22 Dec 2021 · La Liga15 in 100 - Granada 1-0 Real Sociedad
Sun 14 Mar 2021 · La Liga16 in 100 - Atletico Madrid 0-0 GranadaWed 20 Apr 2022 · La Liga16 in 100
- Granada 1-2 Levante
Sat 14 Dec 2019 · La Liga17 in 100 
Athletic Club 1-1 GranadaFri 19 Apr 2024 · La Liga19 in 100- Granada 1-0 Athletic ClubTue 10 May 2022 · La Liga19 in 100
- Granada 2-2 BarcelonaSun 8 Oct 2023 · La Liga20 in 100
- Granada 1-1 BarcelonaSat 8 Jan 2022 · La Liga22 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Barcelona 3-3 GranadaSun 11 Feb 2024 · home win said83 in 100
- Barcelona 1-2 GranadaThu 29 Apr 2021 · home win said82 in 100
- Barcelona 1-1 GranadaMon 20 Sep 2021 · home win said80 in 100
- Atletico Madrid 0-0 GranadaWed 20 Apr 2022 · home win said76 in 100
- Athletic Club 1-1 GranadaFri 19 Apr 2024 · home win said71 in 100
- Granada 2-2 BarcelonaSun 8 Oct 2023 · away win said67 in 100
- Granada 1-1 BarcelonaSat 8 Jan 2022 · away win said64 in 100
- Granada 1-0 SevillaSun 3 Oct 2021 · away win said62 in 100
Villarreal 0-0 GranadaMon 16 Aug 2021 · home win said62 in 100- Athletic Club 2-2 GranadaFri 26 Nov 2021 · home win said61 in 100
- Granada 1-0 Real SociedadSun 14 Mar 2021 · away win said61 in 100
- Granada 1-2 LevanteSat 14 Dec 2019 · home win said61 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Real Madrid | 8 | 24 | 17.7 | +6.3 |
  Valencia | 8 | 17 | 12.0 | +5.0 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 |
  Eibar | 4 | 9 | 5.3 | +3.7 |
  Real Sociedad | 8 | 18 | 14.6 | +3.4 |
  Villarreal | 8 | 18 | 14.6 | +3.4 |
  Sevilla | 8 | 18 | 14.9 | +3.1 |
  Celta Vigo | 8 | 15 | 12.4 | +2.6 |
  Girona | 2 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
  SD Huesca | 2 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 |
  Real Betis | 8 | 14 | 12.8 | +1.2 |
  Levante | 6 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | La Liga | 38 | 54 | 74 | 25 | 24 | 2.84 | 3.08 | 0.159 |
| 2021-22 | La Liga | 38 | 51 | 42 | 26 | 37 | 2.67 | 2.76 | 0.215 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 49 | 61 | 27 | 18 | 2.51 | 2.95 | 0.215 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 47 | 55 | 27 | 21 | 2.52 | 2.55 | 0.204 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.