All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 190 league matches of Real Valladolid since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 53 times in 100; it said 52. Draws: said 26, happened 28 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches190each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened53 in 100Vesta said 52
Draws28 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.43Vesta expected 2.60
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 23 | 6.9 | 13.0 | +6.1 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 76 | 15.7 | 9.2 | −6.5 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 216 | 26.2 | 24.5 | −1.7 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 100 | 33.9 | 35.0 | +1.1 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 64 | 44.7 | 45.3 | +0.6 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 43 | 54.4 | 53.5 | −0.9 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 27 | 64.4 | 85.2 | +20.8 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Real Valladolid 3-1 Barcelona
Tue 23 May 2023 · La Liga6 in 100
Villarreal 1-2 Real ValladolidSat 15 Apr 2023 · La Liga7 in 100
Real Sociedad 0-1 Real ValladolidSun 5 Feb 2023 · La Liga10 in 100
Eibar 1-2 Real ValladolidSun 17 Mar 2019 · La Liga11 in 100
Alaves 2-3 Real ValladolidFri 18 Oct 2024 · La Liga16 in 100
Real Madrid 1-1 Real ValladolidSat 24 Aug 2019 · La Liga16 in 100
Real Betis 1-2 Real ValladolidSun 18 Aug 2019 · La Liga18 in 100- Real Sociedad 1-2 Real ValladolidSun 9 Dec 2018 · La Liga18 in 100
Girona 0-0 Real ValladolidFri 17 Aug 2018 · La Liga19 in 100- Real Valladolid 1-0 Real BetisSat 11 Jan 2025 · La Liga20 in 100
- Real Valladolid 1-0 Real SociedadSat 22 Oct 2022 · La Liga20 in 100
- Real Betis 0-1 Real ValladolidSun 21 Oct 2018 · La Liga21 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Villarreal 1-2 Real ValladolidSat 15 Apr 2023 · home win said79 in 100
- Real Valladolid 3-1 BarcelonaTue 23 May 2023 · away win said79 in 100
- Real Madrid 1-1 Real ValladolidSat 24 Aug 2019 · home win said75 in 100
- Girona 0-0 Real ValladolidFri 17 Aug 2018 · home win said71 in 100
- Real Sociedad 0-1 Real ValladolidSun 5 Feb 2023 · home win said70 in 100
- Eibar 1-2 Real ValladolidSun 17 Mar 2019 · home win said69 in 100
Sevilla 1-1 Real ValladolidFri 26 Jun 2020 · home win said63 in 100
Valencia 1-1 Real ValladolidSat 12 Jan 2019 · home win said61 in 100- Alaves 2-3 Real ValladolidFri 18 Oct 2024 · home win said59 in 100
- Real Valladolid 1-1 Athletic Club
Sun 10 Nov 2024 · away win said58 in 100 - Real Betis 1-2 Real ValladolidSun 18 Aug 2019 · home win said57 in 100
- Sevilla 1-1 Real ValladolidSat 19 Dec 2020 · home win said57 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Atletico Madrid | 10 | 28 | 21.1 | +6.9 |
  Rayo Vallecano | 6 | 15 | 10.2 | +4.8 |
  Alaves | 8 | 16 | 11.4 | +4.6 |
  Real Madrid | 10 | 28 | 23.7 | +4.3 |
  Sevilla | 10 | 22 | 18.6 | +3.4 |
  Valencia | 10 | 20 | 17.1 | +2.9 |
  Barcelona | 10 | 27 | 24.2 | +2.8 |
  Cadiz | 4 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 |
  Leganes | 6 | 11 | 9.1 | +1.9 |
  SD Huesca | 4 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 |
  Levante | 6 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
  Villarreal | 10 | 20 | 19.2 | +0.8 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Real Valladolid | 190 | 170 | 186.8 | −16.8 |
  Real Sociedad | 10 | 13 | 18.6 | −5.6 |
  Real Betis | 10 | 14 | 17.9 | −3.9 |
  Getafe | 10 | 13 | 16.8 | −3.8 |
  Celta Vigo | 10 | 14 | 16.5 | −2.5 |
  Almeria | 2 | 1 | 3.3 | −2.3 |
  Athletic Club | 10 | 16 | 18.3 | −2.3 |
  Espanyol | 8 | 10 | 12.1 | −2.1 |
  Eibar | 6 | 8 | 9.5 | −1.5 |
  Girona | 6 | 10 | 11.3 | −1.3 |
  Elche | 4 | 3 | 4.2 | −1.2 |
  Osasuna | 8 | 13 | 12.8 | +0.2 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Real Valladolid's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | La Liga | 38 | 58 | 82 | 24 | 11 | 2.83 | 3.05 | 0.136 |
| 2022-23 | La Liga | 38 | 54 | 53 | 25 | 18 | 2.68 | 2.53 | 0.217 |
| 2020-21 | La Liga | 38 | 48 | 34 | 28 | 42 | 2.37 | 2.39 | 0.180 |
| 2019-20 | La Liga | 38 | 50 | 50 | 27 | 39 | 2.52 | 1.97 | 0.182 |
| 2018-19 | La Liga | 38 | 52 | 47 | 26 | 29 | 2.61 | 2.18 | 0.204 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.