Lab

Which matches change the races most?

Le Havre v Auxerre (Sun 18 Oct) moves a race more than any other coming match: Auxerre's bottom three chance is 61 in 100 if Le Havre win, 52 after a draw and 39 if Auxerre win.

League data to · Vesta · each result against 10,000 runs of the season

FreePro adds every coming match, not only the top five

70 coming matches in the next 8 days, the biggest swing firstBiggest swings 70 matches

each side's chance if the home side wins · draws · the away side wins
CSV
Le HavrevAuxerreSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15
Vesta 49 · 28 · 23
Side and raceHAC winDrawAUX winNow
Auxerrebottom three61523953
Le Havrebottom three34465442
OsasunavRacing SantanderSun 18 Oct, 14:00 CESTSun 14:00
Vesta 48 · 26 · 26
Side and raceOSA winDrawRAC winNow
Racing Santanderbottom three43372436
Osasunabottom three20273526
Paris FCvRennesSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15
Vesta 39 · 28 · 33
Side and racePFC winDrawREN winNow
Rennestop four36445444
Paris FCtop four28221622
Rennestitle3475
Paris FCbottom three<1111
ToulousevTroyesSat 24 Oct, 17:15 CESTSat 17:15
Vesta 61 · 23 · 17
Side and raceTFC winDrawTRO winNow
Troyesbottom three62554457
Toulousetop four20141117
Toulousebottom three1221
UdinesevLecceSun 18 Oct, 12:30 CESTSun 12:30
Vesta 54 · 27 · 19
Side and raceUDI winDrawLEC winNow
Leccebottom three77695972
Udinesebottom three20293625
RasenBallsport LeipzigvElversbergSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 68 · 20 · 13
Side and raceRBL winDrawSVE winNow
RasenBallsport Leipzigtop four66564861
Elversbergbottom three139411
Elversbergtop four1221
PaderbornvHamburger SVSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 48 · 28 · 24
Side and racePAD winDrawHSV winNow
Hamburger SVbottom three53433546
Paderbornbottom three22313728
LyonvNiceSun 18 Oct, 20:45 CESTSun 20:45
Vesta 61 · 24 · 15
Side and raceLYO winDrawNCE winNow
Lyontop four62514457
Nicebottom three29261726
Lyontitle10648
GetafevRayo VallecanoMon 19 Oct, 21:00 CESTMon 21:00
Vesta 32 · 33 · 35
Side and raceGET winDrawRAY winNow
Getafebottom three29394638
Rayo Vallecanobottom three10646
Rayo Vallecanotop four1121
AngersvMarseilleSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 24 · 27 · 49
Side and raceANG winDrawMAR winNow
Angersbottom three42535953
Marseilletop four9101713
Marseillebottom three4312
Bayer LeverkusenvFreiburgSun 18 Oct, 15:30 CESTSun 15:30
Vesta 57 · 23 · 20
Side and raceB04 winDrawSCF winNow
Freiburgtop four28354633
Bayer Leverkusentop four84766879
Bayer Leverkusentitle2112
JuventusvLazioSun 18 Oct, 20:45 CESTSun 20:45
Vesta 52 · 28 · 21
Side and raceJUV winDrawLAZ winNow
Juventustop four52403445
Laziotop four15182718
Juventustitle2112
NapolivRomaSat 24 Oct, 18:00 CESTSat 18:00
Vesta 33 · 29 · 38
Side and raceNAP winDrawROM winNow
Napolitop four58474148
Romatitle16212521
Romatop four88929592
Napolititle3212
LaziovParmaSat 24 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 57 · 27 · 16
Side and raceLAZ winDrawPAR winNow
Parmabottom three63594659
Laziotop four21161218
VfB StuttgartvBorussia M.GladbachFri 23 Oct, 20:30 CESTFri 20:30
Vesta 69 · 18 · 13
Side and raceVFB winDrawBMG winNow
Borussia M.Gladbachbottom three71655468
VfB Stuttgarttop four32251929
MalagavReal SociedadSun 18 Oct, 18:30 CESTSun 18:30
Vesta 35 · 29 · 37
Side and raceMLG winDrawRSO winNow
Malagabottom three57677466
Real Sociedadbottom three6524
Real Sociedadtop four1232
ParmavTorinoMon 19 Oct, 20:45 CESTMon 20:45
Vesta 29 · 31 · 39
Side and racePAR winDrawTOR winNow
Parmabottom three49616659
Torinobottom three131059
TottenhamvCoventryMon 19 Oct, 21:00 CESTMon 21:00
Vesta 45 · 28 · 27
Side and raceTOT winDrawCOV winNow
Tottenhambottom three40525748
Coventrybottom three50413343
Racing SantandervEspanyolSat 24 Oct, 16:15 CESTSat 16:15
Vesta 37 · 27 · 35
Side and raceRAC winDrawESP winNow
Racing Santanderbottom three28374536
Espanyolbottom three21161016
ValenciavVillarrealSat 24 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 24 · 26 · 49
Side and raceVAL winDrawVIL winNow
Valenciabottom three23333934
Villarrealtop four23263630
Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartSat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 21 · 23 · 55
Side and raceHSV winDrawVFB winNow
Hamburger SVbottom three35435146
VfB Stuttgarttop four21253429
CoventryvFulhamSat 24 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00
Vesta 30 · 29 · 41
Side and raceCOV winDrawFUL winNow
Coventrybottom three33434943
Fulhambottom three31271925
AugsburgvUnion BerlinSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 48 · 26 · 26
Side and raceFCA winDrawFCU winNow
Union Berlinbottom three56494050
Augsburgbottom three10162014
LillevBrestSat 17 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 46 · 28 · 26
Side and raceLIL winDrawBRS winNow
Lilletop four46363139
Bresttop four56106
Brestbottom three7535
Lilletitle5324
BrightonvCrystal PalaceSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 62 · 22 · 16
Side and raceBHA winDrawCRY winNow
Crystal Palacebottom three39322435
Brightontop four72625968
Brightontitle3113
Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundSat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 18 · 25 · 58
Side and raceFCU winDrawBVB winNow
Union Berlinbottom three38505350
Borussia Dortmundtop four81828986
Borussia Dortmundtitle2243
AlavesvMalagaFri 23 Oct, 21:00 CESTFri 21:00
Vesta 54 · 28 · 19
Side and raceALA winDrawMLG winNow
Malagabottom three70655566
Alavesbottom three2574
Alavestop four2112
ValenciavAthletic ClubSat 17 Oct, 21:00 CESTSat 21:00
Vesta 27 · 30 · 43
Side and raceVAL winDrawATH winNow
Valenciabottom three24353934
Athletic Clubtop four13172218
Borussia M.GladbachvHoffenheimSun 18 Oct, 17:30 CESTSun 17:30
Vesta 32 · 25 · 43
Side and raceBMG winDrawTSG winNow
Borussia M.Gladbachbottom three59707468
Hoffenheimbottom three11858
Hoffenheimtop four1132
Rayo VallecanovElcheSat 24 Oct, 14:00 CESTSat 14:00
Vesta 48 · 28 · 25
Side and raceRAY winDrawELC winNow
Elchebottom three35282029
Rayo Vallecanobottom three47106
Rayo Vallecanotop four21<11
LorientvMonacoSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15
Vesta 33 · 30 · 37
Side and raceLOR winDrawASM winNow
Monacotop four54586860
Lorientbottom three3797
Monacotitle881310
Lorienttop four7445
StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainSat 17 Oct, 17:15 CESTSat 17:15
Vesta 18 · 24 · 58
Side and raceRCS winDrawPSG winNow
Paris Saint Germaintitle57637267
Strasbourgbottom three591110
Strasbourgtop four6333
Paris Saint Germaintop four94959796
BrentfordvLiverpoolSat 17 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00
Vesta 35 · 27 · 38
Side and raceBRE winDrawLIV winNow
Liverpooltop four30354437
Brentfordtop four19121013
Brentfordbottom three1232
IpswichvNottingham ForestFri 23 Oct, 21:00 CESTFri 21:00
Vesta 30 · 28 · 42
Side and raceIPS winDrawNFO winNow
Ipswichbottom three23343832
Nottingham Forestbottom three1814913
Nottingham Foresttop four2243
AC MilanvAtalantaSun 18 Oct, 18:00 CESTSun 18:00
Vesta 48 · 29 · 24
Side and raceMIL winDrawATA winNow
AC Milantop four40312634
Atalantatop four3696
VeneziavNapoliSat 17 Oct, 15:00 CESTSat 15:00
Vesta 17 · 24 · 59
Side and raceVEN winDrawNAP winNow
Veneziabottom three59697470
Napolitop four39435348
TroyesvLensSat 17 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 21 · 24 · 54
Side and raceTRO winDrawRCL winNow
Troyesbottom three47566157
Lenstop four27314035
Lenstitle2243
Real BetisvBarcelonaSat 17 Oct, 18:00 CESTSat 18:00
Vesta 18 · 22 · 60
Side and raceRBB winDrawBAR winNow
Real Betistop four59504549
Barcelonatitle89929593
LensvParis FCSat 24 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 50 · 26 · 24
Side and raceRCL winDrawPFC winNow
Paris FCtop four17233122
Lenstop four41322735
Lenstitle4223
Paris FCtitle1121
ChelseavTottenhamSat 24 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 55 · 25 · 20
Side and raceCHE winDrawTOT winNow
Tottenhambottom three52473848
Chelseatop four42323037
FulhamvHullSat 17 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00
Vesta 46 · 29 · 26
Side and raceFUL winDrawHUL winNow
Fulhambottom three19273325
Hullbottom three1914915
Hulltop four1232
Fulhamtop four21<11
Bayern MunichvRasenBallsport LeipzigSat 17 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 73 · 16 · 11
Side and raceFCB winDrawRBL winNow
RasenBallsport Leipzigtop four59647361
Bayern Munichtitle96939095
RasenBallsport Leipzigtitle<1121
EvertonvChelseaSat 17 Oct, 13:30 CESTSat 13:30
Vesta 33 · 28 · 39
Side and raceEVE winDrawCHE winNow
Chelseatop four30354437
Evertonbottom three3696
Evertontop four9546
VillarrealvElcheSat 17 Oct, 16:15 CESTSat 16:15
Vesta 68 · 20 · 12
Side and raceVIL winDrawELC winNow
Elchebottom three32261829
Villarrealtop four33252330
FC ColognevSchalke 04Sat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 46 · 27 · 28
Side and raceKOE winDrawS04 winNow
Schalke 04bottom three29221523
FC Colognebottom three15242821
FiorentinavComoSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 24 · 27 · 49
Side and raceFIO winDrawCOM winNow
Comotop four45495852
Fiorentinabottom three691210
Comotitle2243
ComovSassuoloSat 24 Oct, 15:00 CESTSat 15:00
Vesta 60 · 24 · 17
Side and raceCOM winDrawSAS winNow
Comotop four57484352
Sassuolobottom three6425
Comotitle3223
Werder BremenvPaderbornSat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 43 · 29 · 28
Side and raceSVW winDrawPAD winNow
Paderbornbottom three34282028
Werder Bremenbottom three8141813
BournemouthvSunderlandSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 46 · 29 · 25
Side and raceBOU winDrawSUN winNow
Sunderlandbottom three33261927
Bournemouthbottom three9141712
Bournemouthtop four4323
TorinovMonzaFri 23 Oct, 20:45 CESTFri 20:45
Vesta 41 · 29 · 31
Side and raceTOR winDrawMZA winNow
Monzabottom three26191420
Torinobottom three59149
BrestvNiceFri 23 Oct, 20:45 CESTFri 20:45
Vesta 50 · 28 · 23
Side and raceBRS winDrawNCE winNow
Nicebottom three30261826
Bresttop four9536
Brestbottom three4785
Newcastle UnitedvAston VillaSat 17 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 43 · 28 · 30
Side and raceNEW winDrawAVL winNow
Aston Villabottom three27221522
Newcastle Unitedbottom three7121712
Newcastle Unitedtop four5323
Aston Villatop four1121
Schalke 04vMainz 05Sat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 33 · 26 · 40
Side and raceS04 winDrawM05 winNow
Schalke 04bottom three17232823
Mainz 05top four3585
Mainz 05bottom three3312
Manchester CityvIpswichSat 17 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00
Vesta 75 · 16 · 9
Side and raceMCI winDrawIPS winNow
Ipswichbottom three34302332
Manchester Citytitle59504857
Manchester Citytop four99999899
Aston VillavManchester CitySat 24 Oct, 13:30 CESTSat 13:30
Vesta 19 · 24 · 56
Side and raceAVL winDrawMCI winNow
Manchester Citytitle49536157
Aston Villabottom three14212622
Aston Villatop four2111
BolognavInterSat 17 Oct, 18:00 CESTSat 18:00
Vesta 17 · 25 · 57
Side and raceBOL winDrawINT winNow
Intertitle64697572
Bolognabottom three2343
Intertop four98999999
ArsenalvEvertonSat 24 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00
Vesta 65 · 22 · 13
Side and raceARS winDrawEVE winNow
Arsenaltitle43343240
Evertonbottom three7636
Evertontop four5796
Arsenaltop four99989698
MonzavCagliariMon 19 Oct, 18:30 CESTMon 18:30
Vesta 41 · 29 · 30
Side and raceMZA winDrawCAG winNow
Monzabottom three15212620
Cagliaribottom three4313
Nottingham ForestvArsenalSun 18 Oct, 17:30 CESTSun 17:30
Vesta 19 · 27 · 54
Side and raceNFO winDrawARS winNow
Arsenaltitle33364440
Nottingham Forestbottom three8131513
Nottingham Foresttop four4423
Arsenaltop four97989998
RomavGenoaSat 17 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 68 · 21 · 11
Side and raceROM winDrawGEN winNow
Genoabottom three24211423
Romatitle23171421
Romatop four94898792
Showing 60 of 70Show 20 more

For each coming league match Vesta's 10,000 runs of the season are split by the result of that match: the share of runs where a side finishes first, in the top four or in the bottom three, among the runs with a home win, a draw or an away win. "Now" weighs the three by how often each result comes up. Green = the side's best result, red = its worst. Chances in 100.

Related questions