Lab

Which matches change the races most?

Le Havre v Auxerre (Sun 18 Oct) moves a race more than any other coming match: Auxerre's bottom three chance is 61 in 100 if Le Havre win, 52 after a draw and 39 if Auxerre win.

League data to · Vesta · each result against 10,000 runs of the season

FreePro adds every coming match, not only the top five

70 coming matches in the next 8 days, the biggest swing firstBiggest swings 70 matches

each side's chance if the home side wins · draws · the away side wins
CSV
Le HavrevAuxerreSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15
Vesta 49 · 28 · 23
Side and raceHAC winDrawAUX winNow
Auxerrebottom three61523953
Le Havrebottom three34465442
OsasunavRacing SantanderSun 18 Oct, 14:00 CESTSun 14:00
Vesta 48 · 26 · 26
Side and raceOSA winDrawRAC winNow
Racing Santanderbottom three43372436
Osasunabottom three20273526
Paris FCvRennesSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15
Vesta 39 · 28 · 33
Side and racePFC winDrawREN winNow
Rennestop four36445444
Paris FCtop four28221622
Rennestitle3475
Paris FCbottom three<1111
ToulousevTroyesSat 24 Oct, 17:15 CESTSat 17:15
Vesta 61 · 23 · 17
Side and raceTFC winDrawTRO winNow
Troyesbottom three62554457
Toulousetop four20141117
Toulousebottom three1221
UdinesevLecceSun 18 Oct, 12:30 CESTSun 12:30
Vesta 54 · 27 · 19
Side and raceUDI winDrawLEC winNow
Leccebottom three77695972
Udinesebottom three20293625
RasenBallsport LeipzigvElversbergSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 68 · 20 · 13
Side and raceRBL winDrawSVE winNow
RasenBallsport Leipzigtop four66564861
Elversbergbottom three139411
Elversbergtop four1221
PaderbornvHamburger SVSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 48 · 28 · 24
Side and racePAD winDrawHSV winNow
Hamburger SVbottom three53433546
Paderbornbottom three22313728
LyonvNiceSun 18 Oct, 20:45 CESTSun 20:45
Vesta 61 · 24 · 15
Side and raceLYO winDrawNCE winNow
Lyontop four62514457
Nicebottom three29261726
Lyontitle10648
GetafevRayo VallecanoMon 19 Oct, 21:00 CESTMon 21:00
Vesta 32 · 33 · 35
Side and raceGET winDrawRAY winNow
Getafebottom three29394638
Rayo Vallecanobottom three10646
Rayo Vallecanotop four1121
AngersvMarseilleSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 24 · 27 · 49
Side and raceANG winDrawMAR winNow
Angersbottom three42535953
Marseilletop four9101713
Marseillebottom three4312
Bayer LeverkusenvFreiburgSun 18 Oct, 15:30 CESTSun 15:30
Vesta 57 · 23 · 20
Side and raceB04 winDrawSCF winNow
Freiburgtop four28354633
Bayer Leverkusentop four84766879
Bayer Leverkusentitle2112
JuventusvLazioSun 18 Oct, 20:45 CESTSun 20:45
Vesta 52 · 28 · 21
Side and raceJUV winDrawLAZ winNow
Juventustop four52403445
Laziotop four15182718
Juventustitle2112
NapolivRomaSat 24 Oct, 18:00 CESTSat 18:00
Vesta 33 · 29 · 38
Side and raceNAP winDrawROM winNow
Napolitop four58474148
Romatitle16212521
Romatop four88929592
Napolititle3212
LaziovParmaSat 24 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 57 · 27 · 16
Side and raceLAZ winDrawPAR winNow
Parmabottom three63594659
Laziotop four21161218
VfB StuttgartvBorussia M.GladbachFri 23 Oct, 20:30 CESTFri 20:30
Vesta 69 · 18 · 13
Side and raceVFB winDrawBMG winNow
Borussia M.Gladbachbottom three71655468
VfB Stuttgarttop four32251929
MalagavReal SociedadSun 18 Oct, 18:30 CESTSun 18:30
Vesta 35 · 29 · 37
Side and raceMLG winDrawRSO winNow
Malagabottom three57677466
Real Sociedadbottom three6524
Real Sociedadtop four1232
ParmavTorinoMon 19 Oct, 20:45 CESTMon 20:45
Vesta 29 · 31 · 39
Side and racePAR winDrawTOR winNow
Parmabottom three49616659
Torinobottom three131059
TottenhamvCoventryMon 19 Oct, 21:00 CESTMon 21:00
Vesta 45 · 28 · 27
Side and raceTOT winDrawCOV winNow
Tottenhambottom three40525748
Coventrybottom three50413343
Racing SantandervEspanyolSat 24 Oct, 16:15 CESTSat 16:15
Vesta 37 · 27 · 35
Side and raceRAC winDrawESP winNow
Racing Santanderbottom three28374536
Espanyolbottom three21161016
ValenciavVillarrealSat 24 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 24 · 26 · 49
Side and raceVAL winDrawVIL winNow
Valenciabottom three23333934
Villarrealtop four23263630
Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartSat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 21 · 23 · 55
Side and raceHSV winDrawVFB winNow
Hamburger SVbottom three35435146
VfB Stuttgarttop four21253429
CoventryvFulhamSat 24 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00
Vesta 30 · 29 · 41
Side and raceCOV winDrawFUL winNow
Coventrybottom three33434943
Fulhambottom three31271925
AugsburgvUnion BerlinSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 48 · 26 · 26
Side and raceFCA winDrawFCU winNow
Union Berlinbottom three56494050
Augsburgbottom three10162014
LillevBrestSat 17 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 46 · 28 · 26
Side and raceLIL winDrawBRS winNow
Lilletop four46363139
Bresttop four56106
Brestbottom three7535
Lilletitle5324
BrightonvCrystal PalaceSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 62 · 22 · 16
Side and raceBHA winDrawCRY winNow
Crystal Palacebottom three39322435
Brightontop four72625968
Brightontitle3113
Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundSat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 18 · 25 · 58
Side and raceFCU winDrawBVB winNow
Union Berlinbottom three38505350
Borussia Dortmundtop four81828986
Borussia Dortmundtitle2243
AlavesvMalagaFri 23 Oct, 21:00 CESTFri 21:00
Vesta 54 · 28 · 19
Side and raceALA winDrawMLG winNow
Malagabottom three70655566
Alavesbottom three2574
Alavestop four2112
ValenciavAthletic ClubSat 17 Oct, 21:00 CESTSat 21:00
Vesta 27 · 30 · 43
Side and raceVAL winDrawATH winNow
Valenciabottom three24353934
Athletic Clubtop four13172218
Borussia M.GladbachvHoffenheimSun 18 Oct, 17:30 CESTSun 17:30
Vesta 32 · 25 · 43
Side and raceBMG winDrawTSG winNow
Borussia M.Gladbachbottom three59707468
Hoffenheimbottom three11858
Hoffenheimtop four1132
Rayo VallecanovElcheSat 24 Oct, 14:00 CESTSat 14:00
Vesta 48 · 28 · 25
Side and raceRAY winDrawELC winNow
Elchebottom three35282029
Rayo Vallecanobottom three47106
Rayo Vallecanotop four21<11
LorientvMonacoSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15
Vesta 33 · 30 · 37
Side and raceLOR winDrawASM winNow
Monacotop four54586860
Lorientbottom three3797
Monacotitle881310
Lorienttop four7445
StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainSat 17 Oct, 17:15 CESTSat 17:15
Vesta 18 · 24 · 58
Side and raceRCS winDrawPSG winNow
Paris Saint Germaintitle57637267
Strasbourgbottom three591110
Strasbourgtop four6333
Paris Saint Germaintop four94959796
BrentfordvLiverpoolSat 17 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00
Vesta 35 · 27 · 38
Side and raceBRE winDrawLIV winNow
Liverpooltop four30354437
Brentfordtop four19121013
Brentfordbottom three1232
IpswichvNottingham ForestFri 23 Oct, 21:00 CESTFri 21:00
Vesta 30 · 28 · 42
Side and raceIPS winDrawNFO winNow
Ipswichbottom three23343832
Nottingham Forestbottom three1814913
Nottingham Foresttop four2243
AC MilanvAtalantaSun 18 Oct, 18:00 CESTSun 18:00
Vesta 48 · 29 · 24
Side and raceMIL winDrawATA winNow
AC Milantop four40312634
Atalantatop four3696
VeneziavNapoliSat 17 Oct, 15:00 CESTSat 15:00
Vesta 17 · 24 · 59
Side and raceVEN winDrawNAP winNow
Veneziabottom three59697470
Napolitop four39435348
TroyesvLensSat 17 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 21 · 24 · 54
Side and raceTRO winDrawRCL winNow
Troyesbottom three47566157
Lenstop four27314035
Lenstitle2243
Real BetisvBarcelonaSat 17 Oct, 18:00 CESTSat 18:00
Vesta 18 · 22 · 60
Side and raceRBB winDrawBAR winNow
Real Betistop four59504549
Barcelonatitle89929593
LensvParis FCSat 24 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 50 · 26 · 24
Side and raceRCL winDrawPFC winNow
Paris FCtop four17233122
Lenstop four41322735
Lenstitle4223
Paris FCtitle1121
ChelseavTottenhamSat 24 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 55 · 25 · 20
Side and raceCHE winDrawTOT winNow
Tottenhambottom three52473848
Chelseatop four42323037
FulhamvHullSat 17 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00
Vesta 46 · 29 · 26
Side and raceFUL winDrawHUL winNow
Fulhambottom three19273325
Hullbottom three1914915
Hulltop four1232
Fulhamtop four21<11
Bayern MunichvRasenBallsport LeipzigSat 17 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 73 · 16 · 11
Side and raceFCB winDrawRBL winNow
RasenBallsport Leipzigtop four59647361
Bayern Munichtitle96939095
RasenBallsport Leipzigtitle<1121
EvertonvChelseaSat 17 Oct, 13:30 CESTSat 13:30
Vesta 33 · 28 · 39
Side and raceEVE winDrawCHE winNow
Chelseatop four30354437
Evertonbottom three3696
Evertontop four9546
VillarrealvElcheSat 17 Oct, 16:15 CESTSat 16:15
Vesta 68 · 20 · 12
Side and raceVIL winDrawELC winNow
Elchebottom three32261829
Villarrealtop four33252330
FC ColognevSchalke 04Sat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 46 · 27 · 28
Side and raceKOE winDrawS04 winNow
Schalke 04bottom three29221523
FC Colognebottom three15242821
FiorentinavComoSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 24 · 27 · 49
Side and raceFIO winDrawCOM winNow
Comotop four45495852
Fiorentinabottom three691210
Comotitle2243
ComovSassuoloSat 24 Oct, 15:00 CESTSat 15:00
Vesta 60 · 24 · 17
Side and raceCOM winDrawSAS winNow
Comotop four57484352
Sassuolobottom three6425
Comotitle3223
Werder BremenvPaderbornSat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 43 · 29 · 28
Side and raceSVW winDrawPAD winNow
Paderbornbottom three34282028
Werder Bremenbottom three8141813
BournemouthvSunderlandSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 46 · 29 · 25
Side and raceBOU winDrawSUN winNow
Sunderlandbottom three33261927
Bournemouthbottom three9141712
Bournemouthtop four4323
TorinovMonzaFri 23 Oct, 20:45 CESTFri 20:45
Vesta 41 · 29 · 31
Side and raceTOR winDrawMZA winNow
Monzabottom three26191420
Torinobottom three59149
BrestvNiceFri 23 Oct, 20:45 CESTFri 20:45
Vesta 50 · 28 · 23
Side and raceBRS winDrawNCE winNow
Nicebottom three30261826
Bresttop four9536
Brestbottom three4785
Newcastle UnitedvAston VillaSat 17 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 43 · 28 · 30
Side and raceNEW winDrawAVL winNow
Aston Villabottom three27221522
Newcastle Unitedbottom three7121712
Newcastle Unitedtop four5323
Aston Villatop four1121
Schalke 04vMainz 05Sat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 33 · 26 · 40
Side and raceS04 winDrawM05 winNow
Schalke 04bottom three17232823
Mainz 05top four3585
Mainz 05bottom three3312
Manchester CityvIpswichSat 17 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00
Vesta 75 · 16 · 9
Side and raceMCI winDrawIPS winNow
Ipswichbottom three34302332
Manchester Citytitle59504857
Manchester Citytop four99999899
Aston VillavManchester CitySat 24 Oct, 13:30 CESTSat 13:30
Vesta 19 · 24 · 56
Side and raceAVL winDrawMCI winNow
Manchester Citytitle49536157
Aston Villabottom three14212622
Aston Villatop four2111
BolognavInterSat 17 Oct, 18:00 CESTSat 18:00
Vesta 17 · 25 · 57
Side and raceBOL winDrawINT winNow
Intertitle64697572
Bolognabottom three2343
Intertop four98999999
ArsenalvEvertonSat 24 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00
Vesta 65 · 22 · 13
Side and raceARS winDrawEVE winNow
Arsenaltitle43343240
Evertonbottom three7636
Evertontop four5796
Arsenaltop four99989698
MonzavCagliariMon 19 Oct, 18:30 CESTMon 18:30
Vesta 41 · 29 · 30
Side and raceMZA winDrawCAG winNow
Monzabottom three15212620
Cagliaribottom three4313
Nottingham ForestvArsenalSun 18 Oct, 17:30 CESTSun 17:30
Vesta 19 · 27 · 54
Side and raceNFO winDrawARS winNow
Arsenaltitle33364440
Nottingham Forestbottom three8131513
Nottingham Foresttop four4423
Arsenaltop four97989998
RomavGenoaSat 17 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 68 · 21 · 11
Side and raceROM winDrawGEN winNow
Genoabottom three24211423
Romatitle23171421
Romatop four94898792
LevantevAthletic ClubWed 21 Oct, 20:00 CESTWed 20:00
Vesta 27 · 29 · 44
Side and raceLEV winDrawATH winNow
Levantebottom three16222622
Athletic Clubtop four14162218
Borussia DortmundvEintracht FrankfurtSat 24 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 69 · 19 · 12
Side and raceBVB winDrawSGE winNow
Borussia Dortmundtop four88837886
Eintracht Frankfurtbottom three18141016
Borussia Dortmundtitle3223
LeedsvManchester UnitedSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 35 · 27 · 38
Side and raceLEE winDrawMUN winNow
Manchester Unitedtop four12152116
Leedstop four13879
Leedsbottom three2454
Manchester Unitedbottom three3212
ElversbergvAugsburgSat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 46 · 26 · 28
Side and raceSVE winDrawFCA winNow
Augsburgbottom three1814914
Elversbergbottom three7131611
Elversbergtop four21<11
EspanyolvAtletico MadridSat 17 Oct, 14:00 CESTSat 14:00
Vesta 22 · 28 · 50
Side and raceESP winDrawATM winNow
Espanyolbottom three10151816
Atletico Madridtop four88919492
Atletico Madridtitle1122
Celta VigovAlavesSun 18 Oct, 16:15 CESTSun 16:15
Vesta 41 · 30 · 29
Side and raceCEL winDrawALA winNow
Celta Vigobottom three9151813
Alavesbottom three6424
Alavestop four1232
Mainz 05vWerder BremenSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 55 · 24 · 21
Side and raceM05 winDrawSVW winNow
Werder Bremenbottom three1413713
Mainz 05top four7435
Mainz 05bottom three2242
Atletico MadridvDeportivo La CorunaSat 24 Oct, 21:00 CESTSat 21:00
Vesta 59 · 25 · 16
Side and raceATM winDrawDEP winNow
Atletico Madridtop four93918792
Deportivo La Corunabottom three5324
Deportivo La Corunatop four1232
Atletico Madridtitle2112
Real MadridvSevillaSun 18 Oct, 21:00 CESTSun 21:00
Vesta 71 · 19 · 10
Side and raceRMA winDrawSEV winNow
Sevillatop four66116
Real Madridtop four99979698
Real Madridtitle6446
CagliarivBolognaSat 24 Oct, 15:00 CESTSat 15:00
Vesta 29 · 32 · 39
Side and raceCAG winDrawBOL winNow
Bolognabottom three5423
Cagliaribottom three1343

For each coming league match Vesta's 10,000 runs of the season are split by the result of that match: the share of runs where a side finishes first, in the top four or in the bottom three, among the runs with a home win, a draw or an away win. "Now" weighs the three by how often each result comes up. Green = the side's best result, red = its worst. Chances in 100.

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