Lab

Which matches change the races most?

Le Havre v Auxerre (Sun 18 Oct) moves a race more than any other coming match: Auxerre's bottom three chance is 61 in 100 if Le Havre win, 52 after a draw and 39 if Auxerre win.

League data to · Vesta · each result against 10,000 runs of the season

FreePro adds every coming match, not only the top five

107 coming matches, the biggest swing firstBiggest swings 107 matches

each side's chance if the home side wins · draws · the away side wins
CSV
Le HavrevAuxerreSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15
Vesta 49 · 28 · 23
Side and raceHAC winDrawAUX winNow
Auxerrebottom three61523953
Le Havrebottom three34465442
OsasunavRacing SantanderSun 18 Oct, 14:00 CESTSun 14:00
Vesta 48 · 26 · 26
Side and raceOSA winDrawRAC winNow
Racing Santanderbottom three43372436
Osasunabottom three20273526
AuxerrevLe MansSun 25 Oct, 17:15 CETSun 17:15
Vesta 38 · 28 · 34
Side and raceAUX winDrawLMN winNow
Le Mansbottom three49433141
Auxerrebottom three45536353
Paris FCvRennesSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15
Vesta 39 · 28 · 33
Side and racePFC winDrawREN winNow
Rennestop four36445444
Paris FCtop four28221622
Rennestitle3475
Paris FCbottom three<1111
MonacovLilleSun 25 Oct, 15:00 CETSun 15:00
Vesta 42 · 29 · 28
Side and raceASM winDrawLIL winNow
Lilletop four32385139
Monacotop four68585260
Monacotitle139710
Lilletitle3364
ToulousevTroyesSat 24 Oct, 17:15 CESTSat 17:15
Vesta 61 · 23 · 17
Side and raceTFC winDrawTRO winNow
Troyesbottom three62554457
Toulousetop four20141117
Toulousebottom three1221
ParmavUdineseWed 28 Oct, 18:30 CETWed 18:30
Vesta 33 · 31 · 37
Side and racePAR winDrawUDI winNow
Parmabottom three49616759
Udinesebottom three34251825
MarseillevLe HavreSun 25 Oct, 17:15 CETSun 17:15
Vesta 52 · 26 · 22
Side and raceMAR winDrawHAC winNow
Le Havrebottom three47422942
Marseilletop four1611813
Marseillebottom three1342
LillevLensFri 30 Oct, 21:05 CETFri 21:05
Vesta 36 · 29 · 36
Side and raceLIL winDrawRCL winNow
Lenstop four27354435
Lilletop four49373239
Lilletitle6324
Lenstitle2353
UdinesevLecceSun 18 Oct, 12:30 CESTSun 12:30
Vesta 54 · 27 · 19
Side and raceUDI winDrawLEC winNow
Leccebottom three77695972
Udinesebottom three20293625
RasenBallsport LeipzigvElversbergSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 68 · 20 · 13
Side and raceRBL winDrawSVE winNow
RasenBallsport Leipzigtop four66564861
Elversbergbottom three139411
Elversbergtop four1221
PaderbornvHamburger SVSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 48 · 28 · 24
Side and racePAD winDrawHSV winNow
Hamburger SVbottom three53433546
Paderbornbottom three22313728
LyonvNiceSun 18 Oct, 20:45 CESTSun 20:45
Vesta 61 · 24 · 15
Side and raceLYO winDrawNCE winNow
Lyontop four62514457
Nicebottom three29261726
Lyontitle10648
GetafevRayo VallecanoMon 19 Oct, 21:00 CESTMon 21:00
Vesta 32 · 33 · 35
Side and raceGET winDrawRAY winNow
Getafebottom three29394638
Rayo Vallecanobottom three10646
Rayo Vallecanotop four1121
AngersvMarseilleSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 24 · 27 · 49
Side and raceANG winDrawMAR winNow
Angersbottom three42535953
Marseilletop four9101713
Marseillebottom three4312
AngersvLorientSun 25 Oct, 17:15 CETSun 17:15
Vesta 28 · 30 · 41
Side and raceANG winDrawLOR winNow
Angersbottom three43536053
Lorientbottom three10747
Lorienttop four3475
Bayer LeverkusenvFreiburgSun 18 Oct, 15:30 CESTSun 15:30
Vesta 57 · 23 · 20
Side and raceB04 winDrawSCF winNow
Freiburgtop four28354633
Bayer Leverkusentop four84766879
Bayer Leverkusentitle2112
JuventusvLazioSun 18 Oct, 20:45 CESTSun 20:45
Vesta 52 · 28 · 21
Side and raceJUV winDrawLAZ winNow
Juventustop four52403445
Laziotop four15182718
Juventustitle2112
NapolivRomaSat 24 Oct, 18:00 CESTSat 18:00
Vesta 33 · 29 · 38
Side and raceNAP winDrawROM winNow
Napolitop four58474148
Romatitle16212521
Romatop four88929592
Napolititle3212
LaziovParmaSat 24 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 57 · 27 · 16
Side and raceLAZ winDrawPAR winNow
Parmabottom three63594659
Laziotop four21161218
VfB StuttgartvBorussia M.GladbachFri 23 Oct, 20:30 CESTFri 20:30
Vesta 69 · 18 · 13
Side and raceVFB winDrawBMG winNow
Borussia M.Gladbachbottom three71655468
VfB Stuttgarttop four32251929
GenoavVeneziaSun 25 Oct, 15:00 CETSun 15:00
Vesta 46 · 28 · 26
Side and raceGEN winDrawVEN winNow
Veneziabottom three76705970
Genoabottom three17243123
TorinovComoTue 27 Oct, 20:45 CETTue 20:45
Vesta 22 · 27 · 51
Side and raceTOR winDrawCOM winNow
Comotop four42485952
Torinobottom three59119
Comotitle1243
MalagavReal SociedadSun 18 Oct, 18:30 CESTSun 18:30
Vesta 35 · 29 · 37
Side and raceMLG winDrawRSO winNow
Malagabottom three57677466
Real Sociedadbottom three6524
Real Sociedadtop four1232
Paris Saint GermainvLyonSun 25 Oct, 20:45 CETSun 20:45
Vesta 55 · 25 · 20
Side and racePSG winDrawLYO winNow
Paris Saint Germaintitle73635667
Lyontop four52586857
Lyontitle59148
Paris Saint Germaintop four97959396
ParmavTorinoMon 19 Oct, 20:45 CESTMon 20:45
Vesta 29 · 31 · 39
Side and racePAR winDrawTOR winNow
Parmabottom three49616659
Torinobottom three131059
TottenhamvCoventryMon 19 Oct, 21:00 CESTMon 21:00
Vesta 45 · 28 · 27
Side and raceTOT winDrawCOV winNow
Tottenhambottom three40525748
Coventrybottom three50413343
Racing SantandervEspanyolSat 24 Oct, 16:15 CESTSat 16:15
Vesta 37 · 27 · 35
Side and raceRAC winDrawESP winNow
Racing Santanderbottom three28374536
Espanyolbottom three21161016
Crystal PalacevNewcastle UnitedSun 25 Oct, 15:00 CETSun 15:00
Vesta 35 · 27 · 38
Side and raceCRY winDrawNEW winNow
Crystal Palacebottom three26374235
Newcastle Unitedbottom three1612712
Newcastle Unitedtop four2353
ValenciavVillarrealSat 24 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 24 · 26 · 49
Side and raceVAL winDrawVIL winNow
Valenciabottom three23333934
Villarrealtop four23263630
Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartSat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 21 · 23 · 55
Side and raceHSV winDrawVFB winNow
Hamburger SVbottom three35435146
VfB Stuttgarttop four21253429
CoventryvFulhamSat 24 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00
Vesta 30 · 29 · 41
Side and raceCOV winDrawFUL winNow
Coventrybottom three33434943
Fulhambottom three31271925
LiverpoolvBrightonSun 25 Oct, 15:00 CETSun 15:00
Vesta 40 · 27 · 33
Side and raceLIV winDrawBHA winNow
Brightontop four60677668
Liverpooltop four44353037
Brightontitle2233
FrosinonevLecceThu 29 Oct, 18:30 CETThu 18:30
Vesta 61 · 23 · 17
Side and raceFRO winDrawLEC winNow
Leccebottom three75715972
Frosinonetop four3223
Frosinonebottom three<1121
AugsburgvUnion BerlinSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 48 · 26 · 26
Side and raceFCA winDrawFCU winNow
Union Berlinbottom three56494050
Augsburgbottom three10162014
LillevBrestSat 17 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 46 · 28 · 26
Side and raceLIL winDrawBRS winNow
Lilletop four46363139
Bresttop four56106
Brestbottom three7535
Lilletitle5324
Le HavrevParis Saint GermainFri 30 Oct, 19:00 CETFri 19:00
Vesta 17 · 23 · 60
Side and raceHAC winDrawPSG winNow
Le Havrebottom three30414542
Paris Saint Germaintitle58627167
Paris Saint Germaintop four95959796
LeccevJuventusSun 25 Oct, 18:00 CETSun 18:00
Vesta 13 · 23 · 64
Side and raceLEC winDrawJUV winNow
Leccebottom three60697572
Juventustop four35394945
BrightonvCrystal PalaceSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 62 · 22 · 16
Side and raceBHA winDrawCRY winNow
Crystal Palacebottom three39322435
Brightontop four72625968
Brightontitle3113
Athletic ClubvGetafeSun 25 Oct, 14:00 CETSun 14:00
Vesta 59 · 28 · 13
Side and raceATH winDrawGET winNow
Getafebottom three42362738
Athletic Clubtop four21141218
Union BerlinvBorussia DortmundSat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 18 · 25 · 58
Side and raceFCU winDrawBVB winNow
Union Berlinbottom three38505350
Borussia Dortmundtop four81828986
Borussia Dortmundtitle2243
RennesvStrasbourgSun 25 Oct, 17:15 CETSun 17:15
Vesta 51 · 26 · 24
Side and raceREN winDrawRCS winNow
Rennestop four50413544
Strasbourgbottom three129510
Rennestitle7435
Strasbourgtop four2363
AlavesvMalagaFri 23 Oct, 21:00 CESTFri 21:00
Vesta 54 · 28 · 19
Side and raceALA winDrawMLG winNow
Malagabottom three70655566
Alavesbottom three2574
Alavestop four2112
GenoavJuventusWed 28 Oct, 20:45 CETWed 20:45
Vesta 20 · 29 · 50
Side and raceGEN winDrawJUV winNow
Juventustop four36425045
Genoabottom three15222723
Juventustitle1122
ValenciavAthletic ClubSat 17 Oct, 21:00 CESTSat 21:00
Vesta 27 · 30 · 43
Side and raceVAL winDrawATH winNow
Valenciabottom three24353934
Athletic Clubtop four13172218
VeneziavInterWed 28 Oct, 18:30 CETWed 18:30
Vesta 9 · 17 · 74
Side and raceVEN winDrawINT winNow
Veneziabottom three58667370
Intertitle62687472
Intertop four98999999
Borussia M.GladbachvHoffenheimSun 18 Oct, 17:30 CESTSun 17:30
Vesta 32 · 25 · 43
Side and raceBMG winDrawTSG winNow
Borussia M.Gladbachbottom three59707468
Hoffenheimbottom three11858
Hoffenheimtop four1132
Rayo VallecanovElcheSat 24 Oct, 14:00 CESTSat 14:00
Vesta 48 · 28 · 25
Side and raceRAY winDrawELC winNow
Elchebottom three35282029
Rayo Vallecanobottom three47106
Rayo Vallecanotop four21<11
LorientvMonacoSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15
Vesta 33 · 30 · 37
Side and raceLOR winDrawASM winNow
Monacotop four54586860
Lorientbottom three3797
Monacotitle881310
Lorienttop four7445
StrasbourgvParis Saint GermainSat 17 Oct, 17:15 CESTSat 17:15
Vesta 18 · 24 · 58
Side and raceRCS winDrawPSG winNow
Paris Saint Germaintitle57637267
Strasbourgbottom three591110
Strasbourgtop four6333
Paris Saint Germaintop four94959796
BrentfordvLiverpoolSat 17 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00
Vesta 35 · 27 · 38
Side and raceBRE winDrawLIV winNow
Liverpooltop four30354437
Brentfordtop four19121013
Brentfordbottom three1232
IpswichvNottingham ForestFri 23 Oct, 21:00 CESTFri 21:00
Vesta 30 · 28 · 42
Side and raceIPS winDrawNFO winNow
Ipswichbottom three23343832
Nottingham Forestbottom three1814913
Nottingham Foresttop four2243
SevillavOsasunaMon 26 Oct, 21:00 CETMon 21:00
Vesta 51 · 28 · 22
Side and raceSEV winDrawOSA winNow
Osasunabottom three30251626
Sevillatop four8646
AC MilanvAtalantaSun 18 Oct, 18:00 CESTSun 18:00
Vesta 48 · 29 · 24
Side and raceMIL winDrawATA winNow
AC Milantop four40312634
Atalantatop four3696
VeneziavNapoliSat 17 Oct, 15:00 CESTSat 15:00
Vesta 17 · 24 · 59
Side and raceVEN winDrawNAP winNow
Veneziabottom three59697470
Napolitop four39435348
TroyesvLensSat 17 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 21 · 24 · 54
Side and raceTRO winDrawRCL winNow
Troyesbottom three47566157
Lenstop four27314035
Lenstitle2243
Real BetisvBarcelonaSat 17 Oct, 18:00 CESTSat 18:00
Vesta 18 · 22 · 60
Side and raceRBB winDrawBAR winNow
Real Betistop four59504549
Barcelonatitle89929593
Celta VigovReal BetisSun 25 Oct, 16:15 CETSun 16:15
Vesta 33 · 30 · 37
Side and raceCEL winDrawRBB winNow
Real Betistop four42465649
Celta Vigobottom three8141713
MonzavNapoliWed 28 Oct, 20:45 CETWed 20:45
Vesta 21 · 26 · 53
Side and raceMZA winDrawNAP winNow
Napolitop four40445448
Monzabottom three14192320
Napolititle1132
LensvParis FCSat 24 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 50 · 26 · 24
Side and raceRCL winDrawPFC winNow
Paris FCtop four17233122
Lenstop four41322735
Lenstitle4223
Paris FCtitle1121
UdinesevAC MilanSun 25 Oct, 20:45 CETSun 20:45
Vesta 23 · 28 · 49
Side and raceUDI winDrawMIL winNow
AC Milantop four26314034
Udinesebottom three18243025
ChelseavTottenhamSat 24 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 55 · 25 · 20
Side and raceCHE winDrawTOT winNow
Tottenhambottom three52473848
Chelseatop four42323037
FulhamvHullSat 17 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00
Vesta 46 · 29 · 26
Side and raceFUL winDrawHUL winNow
Fulhambottom three19273325
Hullbottom three1914915
Hulltop four1232
Fulhamtop four21<11
Bayern MunichvRasenBallsport LeipzigSat 17 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 73 · 16 · 11
Side and raceFCB winDrawRBL winNow
RasenBallsport Leipzigtop four59647361
Bayern Munichtitle96939095
RasenBallsport Leipzigtitle<1121
EvertonvChelseaSat 17 Oct, 13:30 CESTSat 13:30
Vesta 33 · 28 · 39
Side and raceEVE winDrawCHE winNow
Chelseatop four30354437
Evertonbottom three3696
Evertontop four9546
VillarrealvElcheSat 17 Oct, 16:15 CESTSat 16:15
Vesta 68 · 20 · 12
Side and raceVIL winDrawELC winNow
Elchebottom three32261829
Villarrealtop four33252330
FC ColognevSchalke 04Sat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 46 · 27 · 28
Side and raceKOE winDrawS04 winNow
Schalke 04bottom three29221523
FC Colognebottom three15242821
VillarrealvEspanyolFri 30 Oct, 21:00 CETFri 21:00
Vesta 63 · 23 · 14
Side and raceVIL winDrawESP winNow
Villarrealtop four34252130
Espanyolbottom three1813916
FiorentinavComoSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 24 · 27 · 49
Side and raceFIO winDrawCOM winNow
Comotop four45495852
Fiorentinabottom three691210
Comotitle2243
ComovSassuoloSat 24 Oct, 15:00 CESTSat 15:00
Vesta 60 · 24 · 17
Side and raceCOM winDrawSAS winNow
Comotop four57484352
Sassuolobottom three6425
Comotitle3223
Werder BremenvPaderbornSat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 43 · 29 · 28
Side and raceSVW winDrawPAD winNow
Paderbornbottom three34282028
Werder Bremenbottom three8141813
BournemouthvSunderlandSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 46 · 29 · 25
Side and raceBOU winDrawSUN winNow
Sunderlandbottom three33261927
Bournemouthbottom three9141712
Bournemouthtop four4323
FreiburgvBayern MunichSun 25 Oct, 17:30 CETSun 17:30
Vesta 15 · 20 · 65
Side and raceSCF winDrawFCB winNow
Freiburgtop four44353133
Bayern Munichtitle91939695
AC MilanvBolognaWed 28 Oct, 18:30 CETWed 18:30
Vesta 48 · 29 · 23
Side and raceMIL winDrawBOL winNow
AC Milantop four39322734
Bolognabottom three4323
TorinovMonzaFri 23 Oct, 20:45 CESTFri 20:45
Vesta 41 · 29 · 31
Side and raceTOR winDrawMZA winNow
Monzabottom three26191420
Torinobottom three59149
IntervFiorentinaSun 25 Oct, 12:30 CETSun 12:30
Vesta 73 · 17 · 10
Side and raceINT winDrawFIO winNow
Intertitle74666272
Fiorentinabottom three117510
Intertop four99989899
BrestvNiceFri 23 Oct, 20:45 CESTFri 20:45
Vesta 50 · 28 · 23
Side and raceBRS winDrawNCE winNow
Nicebottom three30261826
Bresttop four9536
Brestbottom three4785
Real SociedadvLevanteSun 25 Oct, 18:30 CETSun 18:30
Vesta 47 · 26 · 27
Side and raceRSO winDrawLEV winNow
Levantebottom three26231422
Real Sociedadbottom three2574
Real Sociedadtop four2212
Newcastle UnitedvAston VillaSat 17 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 43 · 28 · 30
Side and raceNEW winDrawAVL winNow
Aston Villabottom three27221522
Newcastle Unitedbottom three7121712
Newcastle Unitedtop four5323
Aston Villatop four1121
HoffenheimvBayer LeverkusenSun 25 Oct, 15:30 CETSun 15:30
Vesta 29 · 25 · 46
Side and raceTSG winDrawB04 winNow
Bayer Leverkusentop four72788479
Hoffenheimbottom three47108
Hoffenheimtop four3212
Bayer Leverkusentitle1122
Showing 80 of 107Show 20 more

For each coming league match Vesta's 10,000 runs of the season are split by the result of that match: the share of runs where a side finishes first, in the top four or in the bottom three, among the runs with a home win, a draw or an away win. "Now" weighs the three by how often each result comes up. Green = the side's best result, red = its worst. Chances in 100.

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